بررسی منابع آب قابل دسترس در استان کرمان به وسیله پیاده سازی سناریو های تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری/ مهندسی عمران گرایش مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب دانشگاه آزاد اسالمی واحد کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 استادیار / گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه آزاد اسالمی واحد کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه آزاد اسالمی واحد کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

کمبود منابع آب در ایران و رابطه نزدیک و مستقیم بین آب و غذا این امر را ضروری می‌کند که ارزیابی جامعی در مورد منابع آب موجود در مقیاس بزرگ برای تضمین امنیت غذا انجام شود. از مؤثرترین عوامل بر منابع آب یک منطقه می‌توان به اقلیم، تغییرات آن و پارامترهای هیدرولوژیک اشاره کرد. مدل‎‌های گردش عمومی جو ابزار اصلی بررسی تغییرات اقلیمی محسوب می‌شوند. در این پژوهش از مدل GFDL-ESM2M، چهار سناریوی RCP و بسته نرم‌افزاری CCT جهت بررسی تغییرات اقلیمی و از مدل SWAT برای شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی استان کرمان استفاده گردید. در این تحقیق، دوره پایه از سال 1990 تا 2012 و دوره آینده از 2020 تا 2050 انتخاب شد. برای ارزیابی مدل از (R2) و (NS) استفاده شد. مقدار ضریب NS برای بارش و دمای در تمامی ایستگاه‌ها به ترتیب 8/0 تا 95/0 و 88/0 تا 99/0 متغیر بود. نتایج تغییر اقلیم نشان داد در تمام سناریوها احتمال افزایش بارش در اکثر نقاط وجود دارد. با بررسی‌ نتایج مدل SWAT مشخص گردید که قسمت‌های میانی و غربی استان از میزان ذخیره آب سبز بیشتری برخوردارند. همچنین اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر روی آب آبی، ذخیره و جریان آب سبز باعث کاهش مقدار آن‌ها شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment climate impact on Water Resources Availability in Kerman by implementing climate change scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Iranmanesh 1
  • Navid Jalal Kamali 2
  • Omid Tayari 3
1 PhD Student of Civil Engineering Tendency Engineering and Water Resources Management Islamic Azad University Kerman Branch,
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Kerman Branch, Kerman, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Kerman Branch, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Close relationship between water and food, a Comprehensive assessment of water resources is indispensable in large scale for strategic decision-making on food security. The most effective factors on the water resources of a region can be referred to the climate, climate change and hydrological parameters. GCM models are the main instruments for climate change review. In this study, we used the GFDL-ESM2M model, four RCP scenarios and climate change toolkit (CCT) for climate change analysis and used the SWAT model for hydrological simulation of Kerman province. In this research, the base period of climate change and hydrological simulation of Kerman province was considered during 1990 to 2012 and the simulate climate change during 2020 to 2050. The simulation results were evaluated using NS and R2. The NS coefficient for precipitation and temperature at all stations obtained 0.8 to 0.95 and 0.88 to 0.99, respectively. The climate change results showed that in all scenarios precipitation probably increase in most regions. By studying the SWAT model results, it was determined that the middle and western regions of the province have green water storage. Also, the effects of climate change on blue water, green water flow and green water storage have reduced their amount.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Blue water
  • Green
  • Water
  • Large Scale Modeling
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