ارزیابی یکپارچه سامانه‌های منابع آب مبتنی بر نگرش سیستمی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه باهنر کرمان

2 دانشیار / گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین مراحل برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب، ارزیابی سامانه‌های منابع آب است. آگاهی از کم و کیف منابع آب جزء پیش شرطهای اساسی برای مدیریت منابع آب محسوب می‌شود. ارزیابی یکپارچه یکی از حلقه‌های گم شده از زنجیره اقدامات مدیریت آب به حساب می‌آید. بر این اساس در مقاله حاضر یک فرآیند ارزیابی یکپارچه سامانه‌های منابع آب مبتنی بر نگرش سیستمی، طراحی و پیاده‌سازی می‌شود. فرآیند پیشنهادی شامل سه فاز شناسایی سامانه، مفهوم سازی و آنالیز است. فاز شناسایی در دو بخش شناسایی عناصر، و شناسایی و مشارکت گروداران انجام می‌گیرد. برای انجام فاز مفهوم سازی، یک چارچوب جدید ترکیبی مبتنی بر گذشته و آینده نگری (CEPEAF) پیشنهاد می‌شود. در فاز آنالیز، تکنیک مدل‌سازی پویاشناسی سامانه‌ها به کار گرفته ‌می‌شود. جهت بررسی عملیاتی یافته‌های روش پیشنهادی، فرآیند ارزیابی یکپارچه معرفی شده برای سامانه منابع آب استان خراسان جنوبی، پیاده شده‌است. یافته‌ها حاکی از توسعه کمی کشاورزی، تنها با رویکرد افزایش سطح زیر کشت و بدون توجه به روند کاهشی تولید در واحد سطح به خصوص در مورد محصولات باغی، می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج مدل-سازی نشان می‌دهد، با ایجاد یک موازنه میان کاهش سطح زیر کشت باغی و زراعی به میزان 6 درصد و رشد صنایع و معادن به مقدار 4 درصد علاوه بر اینکه حجم منابع آب زیر زمینی به سمت تعادل می‌رود، از کاهش سرانه ارزش افزوده نیز جلوگیری می‌شود. در این موازنه، کاهش سطح زیر کشت محصولات باغی در مقایسه با محصولات زراعی، اثر بیشتری را در روند به تعادل رساندن حجم منابع آب زیرزمینی نشان می-دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Proposed integrated water resources assessment process, relying on systemic view

نویسندگان [English]

  • Marzieh Samareh Hashemi 1
  • A. Bagheri 2
1
2 Associate Professor at Water Resourses Engineering Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Integrated assessment of water resources systems is one of the main steps in implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management. In other words, knowing the quantity, quality of water resources are prerequisites of management. Integrated assessment is one of the missing links in the management chain. Therefore, in this study an integrated assessment of water resources systems process is proposed and implemented. The proposed process consists of three phases: reconnaissance, conceptualization, and analysis. The reconnaissance phase consists of elements´ reconnaissance and stakeholders’ reconnaissance and participation. A combined novel framework based on ex post and ex ante assessment framework (CEPEAF) is proposed for conceptualization phase. The system dynamics modelling is adopted for the analysis phase. The proposed process has been applied in South Khorasan. The results show extension in agriculture in term of increase in cultivated area ignoring the decreasing trend in production per hectare especially in case of orchards. Simultaneously the local ground water resources have been over exploited since many years ago. Model results also showed 6 percent decrease in orchard and cultivated area alongside 4 percent increase in industry and mine production leads to a stable ground water level and GDP will be remain constant. The other important model result showed decrease in orchard area is more effective on ground water level than decrease in cultivated area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : Integrated assessment
  • conceptualization
  • DPSIR framework
  • GOF framework
  • system dynamics
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