تحلیل فراوانی سه ‌ متغیره مشخصه ‌ های خشکسالی‌ ها در شرق ایران با استفاده از توابع مفصل تودرتو

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی منابع آب/دانشگاه ارومیه، ایران.

2 استاد / گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه ارومیه، ایران.

3 دانشیار / گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران.

چکیده

خشکسالی بعنوان یک وضعیت کمبود آب طولانی مدت، موضوعی چالش برانگیز در مدیریت منابع آب می‌باشد. این پدیده یکی از بلایای طبیعی پرهزینه و کمتر شناخته شده می‌باشد. تاکنون اغلب مطالعات خشکسالی بصورت تحلیل‌های تک-متغیره و دومتغیره بوده است. در این پژوهش به تحلیل سه‌متغیره خشکسالی در شرق ایران برای 13 ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره آماری 2017-1971 پرداخته شد. جهت استخراج پارامترهای شدت، مدت و پیک خشکسالی از شاخص SPImod استفاده گردید. در این راستا، قابلیت دوازده تابع مفصل کلایتون، فرانک، گالامبوس، پلاکت، گامبل- هوگارد، علی- میخائیل- حق، فارلی- گامبل- مورنگسترن،HRT، فیلیپ- گامبل، جوی، گامبل- بارنت و سارمونف جهت ایجاد توزیع توام سه‌متغیره مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، از روش تو در تو برای اتصال توابع مفصل دوبعدی و ایجاد تابع توزیع توام سه‌بعدی استفاده شد. جهت تعیین تابع مفصل برتر در هر ایستگاه، از آماره‌های میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)،نش‌ساتکلیف (NSE) و همچنین حداکثر درست‌نمائی (ML) استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل نشان داد که تابع مفصل HRT بهترین عملکرد را در ایجاد توابع توزیع دومتغیره و سه‌متغیره دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که استفاده از شاخص SPImod تا حدود زیادی معایب SPI متداول را برطرف می‌کند و تغییرات فصلی بارش را در محاسبه شاخص SPI لحاظ می-نماید. نتایج شاخص SPImod نشان داد که بیشترین درصد تعداد ماه‌های خشک مربوط به ایستگاه سبزوار با 52 درصد و کمترین آن مربوط به ایستگاه تربت حیدریه 35 درصد بود که بترتیب بعنوان مناطقی که بیشتر و کمتر در معرض خشکسالی قرار گرفته اند، شناخته شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Frequency Analysis of Trivariate Drought characteristics Properties Using Nested Copula Functions (Case Study: Eastern Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zabihollah Khanitemeliyeh 1
  • Hossien Rezaie 2
  • Rasoul Mirabbasi 3
1 Ph.D. Student in Water Resources Engineering, Urmia University, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shahrekord University, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Drought as a long-term water scarcity situation is a challenging issue in water resources management. This phenomenon is one of the less expensive and less known natural disasters. Until now, most drought studies have been either univariate or bivariate. In this study, trivariate of drought analysis in eastern Iran for 13 meteorological stations in the period 1971- 2017 were investigated. SPImod index was used to extract the intensity, duration and peak drought parameters. In this regard, the ability of twelve copula functions of Clayton, Frank, Galambos, Platelet, Gumble-Hoggard, Ali-Mikhail-Hagg, Farley-Gumble-Morgenstern, HRT, Filip-Gumble, Joey, Gumble-Barnett and Sarmonov to create a joint -distribution of trivariate were tested. For this purpose, the nested method was used to connect two-dimensional joint functions and create a three-dimensional joint distribution function. To determine the best copula function at each station, RMSE, NSE-NSE, and maximum likelihood (ML) statistics were used. The results showed that the HRT copula function has the best performance in generating bivariate and trivial distribution functions. The results also showed that the use of SPImod greatly eliminates the disadvantages of general SPI and takes into account seasonal variations in precipitation in the calculation of SPI. The results of SPImod indicated that the highest percentage of dry months were observed in the Sabzevar station with 52% and the lowest in Torbat- Heydariyeh station with 35%, which were identified as the areas have experienced the highest and lowest dry months, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Three-dimensional joint distribution
  • SPImod index
  • Maximum Likelihood
  • HRT Copula
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