توسعه‌ شاخص خشکسالی اقتصادی- اجتماعی در جامعه کشاورزان (مطالعه موردی: حوضه زاینده‌رود)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 رئیس گروه بهره برداری و نگهداری از سدهای شرکت آب منطقه‌ای اصفهان و مسئول کارگروه سازگاری با کم آبی استان اصفهان

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه بین الملی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

یکی از ابعاد معیشت پایدار بخصوص در جوامع روستایی توجه به اقتصاد کشاورزی و میزان درآمد ناشی از تولیدات کشاورزی می‌باشد. در تحقیق حاضر به منظور ارزیابی اثرات خشکسالی بر جوامع کشاورزی و روستایی، شاخص خشکسالی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستایی معرفی گردیده است. این شاخص برای درنظر گرفتن شرایط اقتصادی و اجتماعی جوامع در مواجهه با خشکسالی از درآمد حاصل از سطوح زیر کشت، هزینه خانوار و توانایی مالی مقابله با تبعات خشکسالی استفاده می‌نماید. با توجه به اهمیت حوضه‌ی زاینده‌رود به عنوان یکی از حوضه‌های پر تنش، مناطق این حوضه‌ در دو استان اصفهان و چهارمحال و بختیاری به عنوان محدوده‌ی مورد مطالعه انتخاب گردیده‌اند. دوره‌‌ی مطالعاتی شامل 29 سال از سال آبی 69-1368 تا 96-1395 است. طبقه‌بندی شاخص خشکسالی اقتصادی – اجتماعی با الگوریتم شکست طبیعی جنکز انجام و منطقه بر اساس انعطاف پذیری و توانایی مقابله با عوارض خشکسالی از منظر تأثیر بر درآمد خانوار به زون‌های بحران کم تا شدید تقسیم شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد مناطق فلاورجان، خمینی شهر، اصفهان و نجف آباد به ترتیب 18، 15، 12 و 8 سال در بحرانی‌ترین شرایط در بین مناطق نه‌گانه حوضه‌ی زاینده‌رود قرار داشته‌اند. حداکثر شدت خشکسالی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستایی در مناطق خمینی شهر و فلاورجان به ترتیب با 77/6 و 37/6 واحد بدست آمد. نتایج کاربرد این شاخص تطابق خوبی با یافته‌های میدانی داشت و آن را شاخص مناسبی برای ارزیابی خشکسالی اقتصادی- اجتماعی معرفی می‌نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a Socio-Economic Drought Index in the Agricultural Communities (Case Study: Zayandehroud Watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Mojtaba Mousavi 1
  • Alireza Shokoohi 2
1 - Head of the Dams Operation and Maintenance Group of Isfahan Regional Water Company and Responsible for the Secretariat of the Isfahan Water Scarcity Adaptation Working Group
2 Professor, Water Engineering Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the dimensions of sustainable livelihood, especially in rural communities, is to pay attention to the agricultural economy and the amount of income from agricultural products. In the present study, to evaluate the effects of drought on agricultural and rural communities, the Rural Socio-Economic Drought Index has been introduced. The index uses income from cultivated areas, household costs, and the financial ability to deal with the consequences of drought to take into account the Socio-economic conditions of communities in the face of drought. Due to the importance of the Zayandehroud basin as one of the most stressful basins, Isfahan and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces have been selected as the study area. The course of study includes 29 years from 1989-90 to 2016-17. The classification of the Rural Socio-Economic Drought Index was performed by the Jenks natural failure algorithm, and the result was zoning of the region into low to severe crisis based on flexibility and ability to cope with the effects of drought in terms of impact on household income. The results show that Falavarjan, Khomeini Shahr, Isfahan, and Najafabad regions have been in the most critical situation among the 9 regions of the Zayandehrood basin for 18, 15, 12, and 8 years, respectively. The maximum intensity of rural socio-economic drought in Khomeini Shahr and Falavarjan regions was 6.77 and 6.37 units, respectively. The results of the application of this index were in good agreement with the field findings and it is a suitable indicator for assessing socio-economic drought.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rural Socio-Economic Drought
  • Agricultural livelihoods
  • vulnerability
  • Resilience
  • Crisis
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