مدل‌سازی هیدرواقتصادی تأثیر کاهش بارش بر الگوی کشت و سود کشاورزان در حوضه آبریز طشک- بختگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

کمبود آب یکی از مهم‌ترین و تأثیرگذارترین عوامل در الگوی کشت و سود کشاورزان است. این تحقیق برای ارزیابی اثرات کاهش بارش بر الگوی کشت و سود کشاورزان در حوضه آبریز طشک- بختگان انجام شد. برای این منظور، از یک مدل تلفیقی که شامل دو بخش هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی است، استفاده گردید. در بخش هیدرولوژیکی، مدل برنامه‌ریزی و ارزیابی منابع آب (WEAP) و در بخش اقتصادی، مدل برنامه‌ریزی مثبت ریاضی (PMP) استفاده شدند. در این تحقیق اثرات کاهش بارش در دو سناریوی کاهش 20 و 40 درصدی، بر بخش کشاورزی از طریق تعیین میزان آب تحویلی به این بخش تعیین شد و سپس عکس‌العمل کشاورزان از طریق الگوی کشت و سود آن‌ها بررسی گردید. این مدل‌سازی به‌صورت منطقه‌ای در 5 ناحیه مجزا از حوضه طشک– بختگان و نسبت به سال پایه (2007-2006) انجام شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد با اجرای سناریوی 20 درصد کاهش بارش، سطح زیر کشت و سود کشاورزان به ترتیب 33 و 29 درصد کاهش یافتند و با سناریوی 40 درصد کاهش بارش، میزان کاهش سطح زیرکشت و سود کشاورزان به ترتیب 36 و 32 درصد بود. در بین محصولات مختلف، بیش‌ترین تغییرات سطح زیرکشت مربوط به یونجه بود و سطح زیرکشت محصول برنج به دلیل سود بالای آن تغییری نکرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Hydro-Economic Modeling of Rainfall Reduction Effect on Cropping Pattern and Farmers' Profits in the Tashk-Bakhtegan Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Rafiei Atani 1
  • Farzin Nasiri Saleh 2
  • Nilufar Najafi Tokhoshkeh 2
1 Tarbiat Modares University
2 Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Water scarcity is one of the most important and influential factors in the pattern of crop cultivation and farmers' profits. This research was conducted to evaluate the effects of rainfall reduction on cultivation pattern and farmers' profits in the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin. To this purpose, a composed model which includes two parts, hydrological and economic was used. In the hydrological section, the water evaluation and planning system model (WEAP) and in the economic section, the positive mathematical planning model (PMP) were used. In this research, the effects of rainfall reduction at two scenarios of 20 and 40% reduction on the agricultural sector are determined by determining the amount of water delivered to this sector and then the reaction of farmers is examined through their cultivation pattern and profits. This modeling was done regionally in 5 separate zones of the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin and compared to the base year (2006-2007). The results of this research showed that with the implementation of the scenario of 20% rainfall reduction, the area under cultivation and farmers 'profits decreased by 33 and 29%, respectively, and at the scenario of 40% rainfall reduction, the amount of the cultivation area and farmers' profits decreased by 36 and 32%, respectively. Among the different crops, the most changes in the area under cultivation were related to alfalfa and the area under cultivation of rice did not changed due to its high profits.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP)
  • Positive Mathematical Programming Model (PMP)
  • Production function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES)
Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Varela-Ortega C, and Purkey D R (2013) Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach. Journal of Environmental Management 128:144-160
Brouwer R and Hofkes M (2008) Integrated hydro-economic modelling: Approaches, key issues and future research directions. Ecological Economics 66(1):16-22
Connor J, Schwabe K, King D, Kaczan D, and Kirby M (2009) Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 53(3):437-456
Davari A (2016) Hydraulic assessment of river environmental conditions considering the dynamics of water uses, case study: Kor River. M.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU) (In Persian)
Dianati M (2015) Economic analysis the effects of reduction of the Helmand River flow on cropping pattern and farmers’ gross profit in sistan region. M.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture Sciences, University of Zabol (In Persian)
George B, Malano H, Davidson B, Hellegers P, Bharati L, and Massuel S (2011) An integrated hydro-economic modelling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies I: Model development. Agricultural Water Management 98(5):733-746
Ghotbizadeh M (2017) Assessing the institutional adaptive capacity of water resource systems versus environmental changes (Case study: Tashk-Bakhtegan Basin). M.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU) (In Persian)
Guan D and Hubacek K (2008) A new and integrated hydro-economic accounting and analytical framework for water resources: A case study for North China. Journal of Environmental Management 88(4):1300-1313
Harou JJ, Pulido-Velazquez M, Rosenberg D E, Medellín-Azuara J, Lund J R and Howitt R E (2009) Hydro-economic models: Concepts, design, applications, and future prospects. Journal of Hydrology 375(3-4):627-643
Howitt R E (1995) A calibration method for agricultural economic production models. Journal of Agricultural Economics 46(2):147-159
Howitt R E, Medellín-Azuara J, MacEwan D, and Lund J R (2012) Calibrating disaggregate economic models of agricultural production and water management. Environmental Modelling & Software 38:244-258
Jalali A (2017) Evaluation of water resources management system at the catchment scale Case study: Tashk-Bakhtegan Basin). M.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU) (In Persian)
Jamab (2013) Comprehensive water plan studies, catchments: Maharloo-Bakhtegan, Abargo-Sirjan, Kavirlut, Daranjir -Saghand, Hamoon-Jazmourian. Package No. 1: Potentials and Current Status of Water Resources Development-2006, Volume 4-Surface Water Resources (Quantitative and Qualitative) (In Persian)
Jiang Q and Grafton R Q (2012) Economic effects of climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Agricultural Systems 110:10-16
Loucks DP, Stedinger JR, and Haith DA (1981) Water resource systems planning and analysis. Prentice-Hall
Maass A, Hufschmidt MM, Dorfman R, and et al. (1962) Design of water-resources systems. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Maneta M P, Torres M D O, Wallender W W, Vosti S, Howitt R, Rodrigues L, Bassoi L H, and Panday S (2009) A spatially distributed hydroeconomic model to assess the effects of drought on land use, farm profits, and agricultural employment. Water Resources Research 45(11)
Parhizkari A, Mahmoodi A, Shokatfadaie M (2017) Assessing the impacts of climate change on available water resources and agricultural production in shahrood river basin. Agricultural Economics Research 9(1):23-50
Pulido-Velazquez M, Andreu J, Sahuquillo A, and Pulido-Velazquez D (2008) Hydro-economic river basin modelling: The application of a holistic surface-groundwater model to assess opportunity costs of water use in Spain. Ecological Economics 66(1):51-65
Rfiei Darani H, Kohansal M, Ghorbani M, Sobohi M (2017) Hydroeconomic modeling in the analysis of water resources management strategies in Neyshabur plain. Agricultural Economics and Development 99(25):41-77
Rosegrant M W, Ringler C, McKinney D C, Cai X, Keller A, and Donoso G (2000) Integrated economic‐hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: The Maipo River basin. Agricultural Economics 24(1):33-46
Sieber J and Purkey D (2011) WEAP user guide. Stockholm Environmental Institute, US Center
Torres M D O, Rodrigues L, and Paz J M (2014) Hydro-economic model for the assessment of water resources allocation and availability impacts on agricultural income. In Embrapa Cerrados-Artigo em anais de congresso (Alice). In: inovagri international meeting, 2; simpósio brasileiro de salinidade, 2; reunião brasileira sobre engenharia da irrigação, 2, Fortaleza, 2014. Anais... Piracicaba: inovagri: inct-ei: inctsa. 299-308
Varela-Ortega C, Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Swartz C H, and Downing T E (2011) Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework. Global Environmental Change 21(2):604-619