توسعه یک مدل عامل‌بنیان هیدرولوژیکی-‌ اقتصادی برای شبیه‌سازی بازارآب منطقه مجن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

چکیده

این تحقیق به بررسی چگونگی تخصیص و مبادله آب بین کشاورزان منطقه مجن می‌پردازد و در ادامه، با استفاده از نتایج تحقیقات میدانی و مصاحبه با تعداد قابل‌توجهی از کشاورزان منطقه و همچنین تهیه و توزیع پرسش‌نامه بین آن‌ها، مدلی عامل‌بنیان برای بازارآب منطقه مذکور پیشنهاد می‌گردد. باوجود آنکه بازارهایی مانند بازار منطقه مجن، فاصله زیادی از بازارهای مدرن کشورهای پیشرفته دارد، نتایج مدل نشان می‌دهد که با تلاش در جهت ترفیع مشکلات و فراهم آوردن محیطی مناسب برای مبادله آب، می‌توان تا حدود مطلوبی از این نوع بازارهای آب بهره برد. با برقراری بیشتر تعاملات مناسب بین کشاورزان و همکاری شرکت آبیاری مجن، بازارآب می‌تواند شامل نتایج سودبخشی باشد. به‌نحوی‌که با افزایش این تعاملات بین کشاورزان، میانگین تعداد کشاورزان زیرخط فقر می‌تواند تا %25 کاهش ‌یابد. عملکرد بازار پیرامون جلوگیری از کاهش سطح زیرکشت در سال‌های نسبتاً کم‌باران نیز مورد توجه واقع شده ‌است؛ به‌صورتی‌که در سال‌های 1385 تا 1387، با کاهش چشم‌گیر بارش، کاهش سطح زیرکشت اندک بوده ‌است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Hydro-Economic Agent-Based Modelling for Simulation of the Water Market in Mojen

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Matinju
  • Hosein Alizadeh
Iran University of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

This study examines how water rights are distributed and traded between farmers in the Mojen region. Furthermore, based on field study and interviews with a group of farmers, an agent-based model is suggested for simulation of Mojen Water Market (MWM). Markets, such as MWM, are far different from the modern ones in developed countries; nontheless the results of the study declared that by eliminating barriers and providing an appropriate background for sbetter water right trads, water markets like MWM will be able to play a pivotal and productive role in the water resources management. We demonstrated how the increase in interactions between farmers as well as cooperation of the Mojen Irrigation Company and the farmers, lead to productive and more profitable results. We showed that as the farmers interactions increased, the average number of farmers below the poverty line would be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, we assessed the water market’s performance, from the cultivated area’s viewpoint, under dry years condition. For instance, during the sever drought of 2006-2008 period, the result showed a mild reduction in crop cultivation compared to the normal situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Informal Water Market
  • Mojen region
  • Farmers Interactions
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