ارزیابی استراتژی‌های مدیریت پایدار آب زیرزمینی برای سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی: مقایسه رویکردهای بهره-برداری تلفیقی سیکلی و غیرسیکلی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران

2 دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

3 گروه مهندسی آب؛ دانشکده مهندسی عمران؛ دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

4 دانشگاه علم و صنعت

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم و اثر آن بر خشک‌سالی‌ها موجب استفاده بیش‌ازحد از منابع آب زیرزمینی شده و پایداری این منابع را به خطر انداخته است. مطالعات تغییر اقلیم نشان می‌دهد که در سال‌های اخیر، جهت‌گیری محورهای مطالعاتی این مبحث از صرف "ارزیابی اثرات" به "سازگاری" گرایش قابل‌توجهی داشته است. ازاین‌رو ارائه راهکارهای مناسب جهت افزایش سازگاری سیستم‌های بهره‌برداری تلفیقی منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی در مقابل اثرات نامطلوب این پدیده حائز اهمیت شده است. در مطالعه حاضر، با در نظر گرفتن سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم، سازگاری سیستم‌های بهره‌برداری تلفیقی منابع آب تحت دو رویکرد سیکلی و غیر سیکلی باهدف افزایش پایداری آب‌های زیرزمینی ضمن کاهش هزینه‌ها و کمبود آبی مقایسه گشته‌اند. در این راستا به‌منظور شبیه‌سازی تغییرات اقلیم حوضه آبریز ابهر رود، متغیرهای بارش و دما از نتایج سه مدل گردش کلی جو تحت سناریوهای انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 در دوره 2031-2021 استخراج‌شده و ریزمقیاس سازی مکانی داده‌های موجود با استفاده از الگوریتم M5 درخت تصمیم صورت پذیرفته است. در گام بعدی برای پیش‌بینی مقادیر رواناب از مدل ترکیبی Wavelet-M5 جهت مدل‌سازی بارش-رواناب و همچنین از روش Kharrufa جهت محاسبه میزان تبخیر در فصول آینده استفاده‌شده است تا این مقادیر در گام بعدی به‌عنوان ورودی در اختیار مدل‌های بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه سیکلی و غیر سیکلی قرار داده شوند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که اتخاذ رویکرد سیکلی به‌جای رویکرد رایج غیر سیکلی به‌طور قابل‌توجهی سازگاری سیستم‌های بهره‌برداری تلفیقی منابع آب را افزایش می‌دهد. به‌گونه‌ای که در رویکرد سیکلی حدود 18 درصد پایداری منابع آب زیرزمینی بیشتر از رویکرد غیر سیکلی تضمین می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Sustainable Groundwater Management Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation: Comparison of Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Conjunctive Use Approaches

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sanaz Moghim 1
  • Mina Khosravi 2
  • Amir Molajou 3
  • Abbas Afshar 4
1 Assistant Professor
2 Iran University of Science and Technology
3 Water Resources Engineering Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering , Iran University of Science and Technology
4 Iran University of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

Climate change and its effect on droughts has led to overuse of groundwater resources and endangered the sustainability of these resources. Climate change studies shows that the recent attempts are not solely concentrated on “impact assessment” and “adaptation” is winning more focus in the studies. Accordingly, presenting appropriate strategies is of importance for increasing of surface and groundwater conjunctive use system adaptability with adverse effects of this phenomenon. In the present study, the adaptability of cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use systems with the aim of increasing groundwater sustainability while reducing costs and water shortage have been compared by considering climate change scenarios. In this regard, in order to simulate climate change in the Basin of Abhar River, precipitation and temperature variables are extracted from the results of three global atmospheric circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the period 2021-2031. Data spatial downscaling was performed using the M5 decision tree algorithm. In the next step, the Wavelet-M5 hybrid model was used to predict runoff values for rainfall-runoff modeling. The Kharrufa method has also been used to calculate evaporation in future seasons. In the next step, these values were provided as input to the cyclic and non-cyclic multi-objective optimization models. Results showed that, CSS operation strategy improves the conjunctive use system adaptability, compared to the optimal operation strategy which employs the NCSS approach, so that in the cyclic approach, the sustainability of the groundwater resources is guaranteed by about 18% more than of the same in the non-cyclic approach.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • adaptation
  • Sustainability of Groundwater Resources
  • Cyclic and Non-Cyclic Approaches
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