واسنجی چندمنظوره مدل SWAT در برآورد رواناب، تبخیر و تعرق و عملکرد محصولات (مطالعه موردی: دشت مهاباد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

3 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

مدل SWAT به طور گسترده در مطالعات هیدرولوژیک بزرگ ‎مقیاس با توجه به کاربری زمین و شیوه‌‏های مدیریت کشاورزی استفاده می‌شود. در اغلب مطالعات عملکرد این مدل براساس داده‎‌های میدانی رواناب سطحی واسنجی می‏‌گردد و به دیگر مؤلفه‏‌های بیلان آب از جمله‏ تبخیروتعرق کمتر پرداخته شده است. هدف از این مطالعه واسنجی چندمنظوره مدل‏ SWAT با شاخص‌‏های تکمیلی از جمله تبخیروتعرق و عملکرد محصولات غالب در دشت مهاباد در استان آذربایجان غربی بود. واسنجی و اعتبار‏سنجی مدل براساس داده‏‌های ایستگاه هیدرومتری گردیعقوب واقع در خروجی محدوده مطالعه و داده‏‌های تبخیروتعرق و عملکرد محصولات غالب منطقه شامل گندم، جو، ذرت، چغندرقند، یونجه، سیب و انگور انجام شد. دوره‏‌های واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی به‌‏ترتیب 6 و 4 سال بود. با توجه به دقت داده‌‏ها در فرآیند واسنجی چندمنظوره، ضرایب 1، 0/9 و 0/8 به‏‌ترتیب برای داده‏‌های هیدرومتری، عملکرد و تبخیروتعرق در تابع هدف نرم‌‏افزار SWAT-CUP و روش SUFI2 درنظر گرفته شد. به طور کلی تحلیل حساسیت مدل منجر به انتخاب 43 مورد از حساس‌‏ترین پارامترها با توجه به حساسیت آن‏ها به دبی رودخانه، تبخیروتعرق و عملکرد گیاه شد به طوری که پتانسیل واحد گرمایی لازم برای رشد گیاه و شاخص LAI از مهم‏ترین پارامترها برای شبیه‌‎‏سازی عملکرد و تبخیروتعرق محصولات در فرآیند واسنجی مدل به‏دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد مدل SWAT به‏‌خوبی توانسته است جریان سطحی را در دوره‌‏های واسنجی (0/85=NSE؛ 0/87 =R2) و اعتبارسنجی (0/92=NSE؛ 0/89 =R2)  شبیه‌‏سازی کند. برآورد جریان سطحی دارای عدم قطعیت بالایی به‏‌خصوص در جریان کم در دوره واسنجی بود که منجر به بیش‌‏برآورد (%4/5 =PBIAS) جریان سطحی شده است. در ارزیابی عملکرد مدل SWAT در برآورد تبخیروتعرق واقعی، این مقادیر با خروجی مدل سنجش از دور WaPOR مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد معیار RMSE در دوره واسنجی بین 13/8 تا 66/4 میلی‏متر و در دوره اعتبار‏سنجی بین 23/9 تا 53/2 میلی‏متر متغیر است. در عین حال، مقادیر تبخیروتعرق واقعی برآورد شده مدل SWAT با برآورد نیاز آبی (پتانسیل) مدل CROPWAT مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. در این بررسی معیار RMSE در دوره واسنجی بین 24/4 (%3/6) تا 49/4 (%6/5) میلی‏متر و در دوره اعتبار‏سنجی بین 21/7 (%6/2) تا 53/4 (%7/2) میلی‏متر برای محصولات مختلف به‏‌دست آمد. مقادیر معیار PBIAS نشان داد برآورد تبخیروتعرق مدل SWAT در هر دو دوره‏ واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی کمتر از برآورد نیاز آبی CROPWAT بوده است. به طور کلی برای اکثر محصولات، مقادیر تبخیروتعرق حاصل از مدل SWAT و WAPOR به مراتب کمتر از مقادیر تبخیروتعرق برآورد شده توسط مدل CROPWAT است که می‏‌تواند نشان دهنده کم‌‏آبیاری باشد. برآورد عملکرد محصولات توسط مدل SWAT با مقادیر عملکرد محصولات گزارش شده در منطقه مقایسه شد. نتایج حاکی از برآورد نسبی مدل برای عملکرد محصول بود، در عین این که مدل SWAT تا حدی عملکرد محصولات را بیش برآورد کرده است. بررسی حاضر نشان داد واسنجی چندمنظوره مدل هیدرولوژیکی بزرگ‎ مقیاس SWAT در یک منطقه تحت آبیاری علاوه‌‏بر استفاده از شاخص متداول جریان رودخانه، با درنظر گرفتن پارامترهای تکمیلی از قبیل تبخیروتعرق و عملکرد محصولات می­‌تواند منجر به افزایش دقت نتایج مدل شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Multipurpose Calibration of SWAT Model in Estimating Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Crop Yield (A Case Study: Mahabad Plain)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Omid Raja 1
  • Masoud Parsinejad 2
  • Masoud Tajrishy 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In most studies, the SWAT model is calibrated based on surface runoff in hydrometric stations, and the evapotranspiration component, which has a great impact on the estimation of balance components, is not considered or less considered in the calibration process. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the yield and evapotranspiration values of major crops in Mahabad plain in West Azerbaijan province, through multivariate calibration of SWAT model. Calibration and validation of the model based on the data of a hydrometric station (Gerdyaghoub station located at the exit of the plain), and crop yield and evapotranspiration of the major crops of the region including wheat, barley, corn, sugar beet, alfalfa, apple, and grape. A six year calibration period followed by a four-year validation period was used. In the multi-purpose calibration process, the coefficients of 1, 0.9, and 0.8, respectively, for hydrometric data, yield, and evapotranspiration were considered in the objective function of SWAT-CUP software and SUFI2 method. In general, the sensitivity analysis of the model led to the selection of 43 of the most sensitive parameters according to their sensitivity to river discharge, crop yield and evapotranspiration. Also, the heat unit potential required for full plant growth and Leaf area index (LAI) were the most important parameters to simulate the yield and evapotranspiration crops in the model calibration process. The results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate the surface flow in the periods of calibration (NSE = 0.85; R2 = 0.87), and validation (NSE = 0.92; R2 = 0.89), as well. The model has high uncertainty in surface flow simulation, especially over-estimation in low flow during calibration period (PBIAS = 4.5%). In evaluating the performance of the SWAT model in estimating actual evapotranspiration, these values ​​were compared with the output of the WaPOR remote sensing model. The results showed that the RMSE criteria varies between 13.8 to 66.4 mm in the calibration period, and between 23.9 to 53.2 mm in the validation period. At the same time, the estimated actual evapotranspiration values ​​of the SWAT model were compared with the estimated crop evapotranspiration of the CROPWAT model. In this study, RMSE criteria in the calibration period between 24.4 (3.6%) to 49.4 (6.5%) mm, and in the validation period between 21.7 (6.2%) to 4.4 53 (7.2%) mm were obtained for different crops. PBIAS values ​​showed that the estimate of SWAT model evapotranspiration in both calibration and validation periods was lower than the estimate of CROPWAT crop evapotranspiration. In general, for most crops, the evapotranspiration values ​​obtained from the SWAT and WAPOR models are far less than the evapotranspiration values ​​estimated by the CROPWAT model that can indicate deficit-irrigation. Crops yield performance estimates were compared by SWAT model with crop yield performance values ​​reported in the region. The results showed a relative estimate of the model for crop performance, while the SWAT model somewhat over-estimated crop performance. The present study showed that multifunctional calibration of large-scale hydrological model SWAT in an irrigated area in addition to using the usual river flow index, taking into account additional parameters such as evapotranspiration and crop yield can increase the accuracy of model results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Evaluation
  • Surface Flow
  • Actual Water-Use
  • Cultivation
  • WaPOR
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