پیامدهای رفاهی کاهش ارزش پول ملی در بازار محصول پسته در ایران (با تأکیدی بر مفهوم صادرات آب مجازی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

چکیده

با کاهش ارزش پول ملی توجیه‌پذیری اقتصادی عرضه محصولات کشاورزی به بازارهای خارجی بیش از پیش افزایش می‌‎یابد. محصول پسته یکی از مهم‌ترین کالاهای کشاورزی ایران محسوب می‌شود که میزان و ارزش صادرات آن در اثر کاهش ارزش پول ملی افزایش می‌یابد. در عین حال، کاهش ارزش پول ملی و افزایش صادرات پسته از ایران از طرفی منجر به کاهش تقاضا و مصرف این محصول در داخل کشور می‌شود و از طرف دیگر افزایش صادرات آب مجازی را به همراه دارد. در این مطالعه، با تأکیدی بر مفهوم صادرات آب مجازی به تحلیل رفاهی آثار کاهش ارزش پول ملی در بازار محصول پسته در ایران پرداخته شد. بدین‌منظور، اجزای بازار پسته ایران در قالب طراحی یک مدل تعادل جزئی شبیه‌سازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که به طور میانگین با هر 1 درصد افزایش در نرخ ارز، رفاه اجتماعی ناخالص نزدیک به 1/6 درصد افزایش می‌یابد. با این وجود، با درنظر گرفتن ارزش اقتصادی آب مجازی اتلاف شده در تولید پسته، میزان رفاه اجتماعی کل در حدود 12 درصد تنزیل می‌یابد. در نهایت، برنامه‌ریزی و تدوین سیاست‌هایی در جهت حمایت از مصرف‌کنندگان واقعی پسته در کشور و لزوم توجه بیش از پیش به درونی کردن آثار بیرونی صادرات محصولات کشاورزی به ویژه در شرایط کاهش ارزش پول ملی مورد بررسی و پیشنهاد قرار گرفت. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Welfare Consequences of the Devaluation of the National Currency in the Pistachio Market in Iran (Emphasis on the Concept of Virtual Water Export)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Alipour 1
  • Mohammad Sadegh Ebrahimi 2
  • Alireza Gohari 3
1 Assistant Professor, Rural Development Department, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Rural Development Department, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Devaluation of the national currency increases the economic justification of the supply of agricultural products to foreign markets more than ever. Pistachio is one of the most important agricultural product in Iran, the export amount and value of which increase with the devaluation of the national currency. At the same time, this will lead to a decrease in demand and consumption of this product and increase in virtual water export from the country. In this study, with emphasis on the concept of virtual water export, the welfare analysis of the effects of the devaluation of the national currency in Iran’s pistachio market was conducted. For this purpose, the components of the Iranian pistachio market were simulated by designing a partial equilibrium model. The results showed that on average, with every 1% increase in the exchange rate, gross social welfare increases by about 1.6%. However, considering the economic value of pistachio virtual water wasted, the total social welfare rate is reduced by about 12%. Finally, the planning and formulation of policies were reviewed and suggested to support pistachio consumers in the country and the need to pay more attention to the internalization of the external effects of agricultural exports, especially in the context of the devaluation of the national currency.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Devaluation of the National Currency
  • Partial Equilibrium Model
  • Virtual Water
  • Pistachio
  • Iran
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