تأثیر تحولات جمعیتی بر امنیت آبی و امنیت غذایی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری جمعیت‎شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این پژوهش، با الهام از چارچوب مفهومی ظرفیت تحمل، در تلاش برای یافتن پاسخ این سؤال است که نقطه تعادل بین جمعیت، امنیت آبی و امنیت غذایی در کشور کجاست. در همین راستا، در پژوهش اخیر روند تحولات اندازه و ساختار سنی و جنسی جمعیت در کشور و به تبع آن، روند تغییرات نیازهای غذایی جمعیت (در هفتاد سال اخیر) ایران دنبال شده، روند تغییرات نیازهای غذایی جمعیت با روند تولید محصولات غذایی طی چهار دهه اخیر در کشور قیاس شده و در عین‌ حال، با استفاده از مفهوم ردپای آب، میزان آب آبی استفاده شده برای تولید نیازهای غذایی جمعیت و تولیدات محصولات کشاورزی در کشور استنباط و با آب قابل برنامه‌ریزی کشور مقایسه شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که روند تولید برخی محصولات غذایی نظیر قند و شکر، میوه و غلات فراتر از نیاز جمعیت (با احتساب الگوی تغذیه متناسب با سند ملی امنیت غذا و تغذیه) بوده و در مقابل روند تولید برخی محصولات کشاورزی (نظیر دانه‌های روغنی و محصولات پروتئینی نظیر گوشت قرمز، تخم‌مرغ و لبنیات)، پاسخگوی نیاز غذایی جمعیت نبوده است. در عین‌حال برآوردها حاکی از آن است که تولید مواد غذایی از سال 1385 از ظرفیت منابع آبی کشور در بخش کشاورزی (آب قابل برنامه‌ریزی بخش کشاورزی) فراتر رفته است. هرچند اگر الگوی مطلوب تولید مواد غذایی در کشور و راهکارهایی نظیر کاهش ضایعات و تلفات بخش کشاورزی به کار گرفته می‌شد، همچنان آب قابل برنامه‌ریزی کشور پاسخگوی نیاز غذایی جمعیت کشور ‌بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Demographic Trends on Food and Water Security in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Soltani 1
  • Ali Bagheri 2
  • Mohhamad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi 3
1 Ph.D. in Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Water Resources Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Inspired by the conceptual framework of carrying capacity, this study tends to answer the challenge of equilibrium of population, water, and food security in Iran. In this regard, the size and age-sex structure trends of Iran population and accordingly the Iranian food requirement changes in the last seventy years have been evaluated. To do so, the amount of blue water used for actual agricultural production and meeting the needed food pattern has been calculated and compared using the concept of water footprint. The results show that the trends of some products such as sugar, fruits, and cereals are beyond the needs of the population, while the trends of other products (such as oilseeds and proteins such as red meat, eggs, and dairy products) have not met the population's nutritional needs in the country. Furthermore, the estimation shows that food production has exceeded the water resources carrying capacity in Iran since 2006. Nevertheless, if the optimal pattern of food production in the country and solutions such as reducing waste and losses in the agricultural sector had been used, the programmable water of the country would have still met the food needs of the country's population.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Carrying Capacity
  • Allowable Water for Planning
  • Water Footprint
  • National Food and Nutrition Security
  • Agricultural Wastes and Losses
Afrakhteh H, Hajipour M, Gourzin M, & Nejati B (2013). The situation of sustainable agricultural development in Iran development plans case: Five-year plans after the revolution. Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies 1(1):43-62
Ahmadi Soomeh K, Ebadzadeh H, Mohammadnia Afroozi Sh, Abbas Taleghani R, Saadat Akhtar AS (2014) Review on production process of Iranian protein products over 4 decades (1974 to 2013). Information and Communication Technology Center of Agriculture-Jahad Ministry (In Persian), URL: https://amar.maj.ir/dorsapax/userfiles/file/protoein-sit.pdf
Ahmadi K, Hosseinpour R, Ebadzadeh H, Gholizadeh H, Hatami F, Mohammadnia Afroozi Sh, Abd Shah H, Abbas Taleghani R (2015) Review on harvest level statistics and production rate statistics of crops over 36 years (1978 to 2013). Information and Communication Technology Center of Agriculture-Jahad Ministry (In Persian), URL: https://amar.maj.ir/Dorsapax/Data/Sub_65/File/43%20saleh%20zeraei.pdf
Arrow K, Bolin B, Costanza R, Dasgupta P, Folke C, Holling CS, Pimentel D (1995) Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment. Ecological Economics 15(2):91-95
Bond M, Meacham T, Bhunnoo R, Benton TG (2013) Food waste within global food systems. A Global Food Security Report (www.foodsecurity.ac.uk) (Last accessed 05 16, 2020)
Boserup E (1965) The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. London: G. Allen and Unwin; Chicago: Aldine
Boserup E (1981) Population and technological change: A study of long-term trends. Chicago: University of Chicago Press
Chaboud G, Daviron B (2017) Food losses and waste: Navigating the inconsistencies. Global Food Security, 12:1-7
Cohen JE (1995) Population growth and earth's human carrying capacity. Science 269(5222):341-346
Davis K (1945) The world demographic transition. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 237(1):1-11
Du Pisani JA (2006) Sustainable development–historical roots of the concept. Environmental Sciences 3(2):83-96
Ehrlich P (1970) The population bomb. New York [Ballantine Books]
Falkenmark M, Lannerstad M (2010) Food security in water-short countries- Coping with carrying capacity overshoot. Fourth Botín Foundation Water Workshop. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis group (pp. 3-22)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2000) New dimensions in water security: Water, society and ecosystem services in the 21st century.  Food and Agriculture Association of the United Nations, Land and Water Development Division, Rome
FAO (2006) Food security (Policy Brief). URL: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/faoitaly/documents/pdf/pdf_Food_Security_Cocept_Note.pdf, (Last accessed 06 18, 2020)
FAO Regional Office for Asia (2006) Rapid growth of selected Asian economies: Lessons and implications for agriculture and food security. Food & Agriculture Org.
Garrone P, Melacini M, Perego A (2014) Opening the black box of food waste reduction. Food policy 46: 129-139
General Population Policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2014, 05 20) Retrieved from the office of the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (In Persian): https://www.leader.ir/fa/content/11847/%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%BA-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%B9%DB%8C%D8%AA (Last accessed 01 14, 2020)
General Health Policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran  (2014, 04 07) Retrieved from the office of the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (In Persian): https://www.leader.ir/fa/content/11651/%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%BA-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AA (Last accessed 01 14, 2020)
Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Toulmin C (2010) Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327(5967):812-818
Götmark F, Cafaro P, O’Sullivan J (2018) Aging human populations: Good for us, good for the Earth. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 33(11):851-862
Gustafsson J, Cederberg C, Sonesson U, Emanuelsson A (2013) The methodology of the FAO study: Global food losses and food waste-extent, causes and prevention. FAO, 2011
Hanjra MA, Qureshi ME (2010) Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy 35(5):365-377
Hardin G (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859):1243-1248
Hoekstra AY (2003) Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the international expert meeting on virtual water trade. Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 12
Hoekstra AY, Chapagain AK, Mekonnen MM, Aldaya MM (2011) The water footprint assessment manual: Setting the global standard. Routledge
Hoekstra AY (2017) Water footprint assessment: evolvement of a new research field. Water Resources Management 31(10):3061-3081
Information and Communication Technology Center of Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (2008-2020) Agricultural statistical yearbook (Volume III -Horticultural Products). Retrieved from Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (In Persian) URL: https://amar.maj.ir/page-amar/FA/65/form/pId3354 (Last accessed 07 09, 2022)
 Information and Communication Technology Center of Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (Crop years 2004-2005 to 2019-2020) Agricultural statistical yearbook (Volume I – Crop Products).  Retrieved from Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (In Persian) URL: https://amar.maj.ir/page-amar/FA/65/form/pId3352 (Last accessed 07 09, 2022)
Information and Communication Technology Center of Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad. (2002-2020). Agricultural Statistical Yearbook (Volume II). Retrieved from Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (In Persian) URL: https://amar.maj.ir/page-amar/ FA/65/form/pId3353 (Last accessed 07 09, 2022)
Ingram J (2011) A food systems approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change. Food Security 3(4):417-431
Karandish F, Hoekstra A (2017)  Informing national food and water security policy through water footprint assessment: The case of Iran. Water 9(11):831
Keshavarz A, Shariatmadar M, Khosravi A, Sheikhi Mehrabadi A, Biki Khoshk A, Shabani M, Bakhshaish M, Kianpour R, Afkari B (2016) Estimation of economic value of water lost due to agricultural wastes & losses (irrigated and horticultural) from harvest to before consumption. Water and Sustainable Development 3(1):73-82 (In Persian), https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v3i1.59431 (Last accessed 07 05, 2020)
Ketabi A (2005) Famines in Iran. What do I know about Iran? In Tehran: Cultural Research Office 59:11-17 (In Persian)
Khorsandi M, Homayouni S, Van Oel P (2022) The edge of the petri dish for a nation: Water resources carrying capacity assessment for Iran. Science of the Total Environment 817:153038
Lane M, Dawes L, Grace P (2014) The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model: An Australian case study. Ecological Modelling 272:220-231
Madani K (2014) Water management in Iran: What is causing the looming crisis? Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 4(4):315-328
Marganingrum D (2018) Carrying capacity of water resources in Bandung Basin. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 118(1):012026, IOP Publishing
Malthus TR (1888: First edition 1798) An essay on the principle of population: or, A view of its past and present effects on human happiness. Reeves
Maxwell S (1996) Food security: A post-modern perspective. Food policy 21(2):155-170
Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens WW (1972) The Limits to Growth, Club of Rome Reports. Universe Books, New York
Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J (1992) Beyond the limits: Global collapse or a sustainable future. Earthscan Publications Ltd
Meadows D, Randers J, Meadows D (2004) Limits to growth: The 30-year update. Chelsea Green Publishing
Mekonnen M, Hoekstra AY (2011) National water footprint accounts: The green, blue and grey water footprint of production and consumption. UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Value of Water Research Report Series No. 50
Mirzaie-Nodoushan F, Morid S, Dehghanisanij H (2020) Reducing water footprints through healthy and reasonable changes in diet and imported products. Sustainable Production and Consumption 23:30-41
Molle F, Mollinga P (2003) Water poverty indicators: Conceptual problems and policy issues. Water policy 5(5-6):529-544
Najafpour (2013) A look at the sugar market in Iran (from 2001 to 2012). Journal of Economic 13(11 - 12):131-142 (In Persian)
Napoli M, De Muro P, Mazziotta M (2011) Towards a food insecurity multidimensional index (FIMI). Master’s Thesis in Human Development and Food Security, Universita Degli Studi Roma Tre, Rome, Italy
Neurath P (2017) The early history of demography before malthus. In From Malthus to The Club of Rome and Back (pp. 3-38), Routledge
Peterson EWF (2017) The role of population in economic growth. Sage Open 7(4):2158244017736094
Price D (1999) Carrying capacity reconsidered. Population and Environment 21(1):5-26
Ravandi M (1985) Social history of Iran. The economic life of the Iranian people from the beginning to today (Volume V) (pp. 27-51). Tehran: Kasri Publications (In Persian)
Rees WE (1992) Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity: What urban economics leaves out. Environment and Urbanization 4(2):121-130
Rees W, Wackernagel M (2008) Urban ecological footprints: why cities cannot be sustainable-and why they are a key to sustainability. In Urban Ecology (pp. 537-555). Springer, Boston, MA
Ren C, Guo P, Li M, Li R (2016) An innovative method for water resources carrying capacity research-metabolic theory of regional water resources. Journal of Environmental Management 167:139-146
Saraei H (1997) Iran's demographic transition: Preliminary considerations. Quarterly Journal of Social Sciences 5(9):37-60 (In Persian)
Simon JL (1981) The ultimate resource. Princeton University Press
Simon JL, Beisner EC, Phelps J (Eds.) (1995) The state of humanity (pp. 642-660). Oxford: Blackwell
Seidl I, Tisdell CA (1999) Carrying capacity reconsidered: From Malthus’ population theory to cultural carrying capacity. Ecological Economics 31(3):395-408
Supreme Water Council Secretariat of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2019) Minute of the 39th session of the Supreme Water Council (In Persian)
Supreme Council of Health and Food Security Secretariat of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2012) National Document on Nutrition and Food Security (2012-2011), Retrieved from Ministry of Health and Medical education (In Persian)
Supreme Council of Health and Food Security Secretariat of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2004) National Document on Cross-sectorial Development of Nutrition and Food Security, Retrieved from Ministry of Health and Medical education (In Persian)
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019) World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1.
The National Synthesis of Updating the Iran's Comprehensive Water Studies (2015) Retrieved from Ministry of Energy (In Persian)
Venkateswarlu B, Prasad JVNS (2012) Carrying capacity of Indian agriculture: Issues related to rainfed agriculture. Current Science 102(96):882-888
Wang X (2022) Managing land carrying capacity: Key to achieving sustainable production systems for food security. Land 11(4):484
Water & Wastewater Planning Office of Ministry of Energy (2016) Allowable water to be allocated. Retrieved from Ministry of Energy (In Persian)
Wiedmann T,  Lenzen M (2018) Environmental and social footprints of international trade. Nature Geoscience 11(5): 314-321
Wyman RJ (2013) The effects of population on the depletion of fresh water. Population and Development Review 39(4):687-704
Zhou XY, Zheng B, Khu ST (2019) Validation of the hypothesis on carrying capacity limits using the water environment carrying capacity. Science of the Total Environment 665:774-784