مروری بر چالش‌های استفاده از مدل‌های عامل‌بنیان در سیستم‌های منابع آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری /مهندسی منابع آب گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی- پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی- دانشگاه تهران- کرج- ایران

چکیده

بازیگران، نقش قابل توجهی در پایداری سیستم‌های منابع آب دارند. اهمیت نقش بازیگران، لزوم در نظر گرفتن و مدل‌سازی این سیستم‌ها را از دیدگاه اجتماعی-اکولوژیکی روشن می‌سازد. مدل‌های عامل‌بنیان ابزاری قدرتمند در زمینه مدل‌سازی سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اکولوژیکی هستند که در سال‌های اخیر، استفاده از آن در زمینه‌های مختلف و به خصوص مدیریت منابع آب افزایش قابل توجهی داشته است. در این مقاله ضمن معرفی کلی رویکرد مدل‌سازی عامل‌بنیان، به بررسی چهار چالش اصلی پیش رو در زمینه مدل‌سازی سیستم‌های پیچیده منابع آب پرداخته شده است: طراحی رفتار عامل‌ها؛ برقراری ارتباط بین بخش اجتماعی و اکولوژیکی؛ مکانی کردن مدل؛ کالیبراسیون، صحت‌سنجی و اعتبارسنجی. با توجه به این که بخش کشاورزی عمده‌ترین مصرف‌کننده منابع آب به حساب می‌آید، در این مقاله سعی گردید تا از تحلیل مقاله‌های معتبر و با ارجاعات بالا در همین زمینه، برای روشن ساختن چالش‌های پیش رو و ایجاد نگرشی صحیح در رابطه با بکارگیری این مدل‌ها در زمینه مدیریت منابع آب استفاده گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Review on Challenges in Application of Agent-based Models in Water Resources Systems

نویسندگان [English]

  • S Lotfi 1
  • Sh Araghinejad 2
1 PhD Candidate of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Actors, have a great role in sustaining water resources systems. The importance of actors’ role, indicates the necessity for considering and modeling these systems from social-ecological aspect. Agent-based models are powerful tools in modeling social-ecological systems which their application in different fields, especially water resources management has increased significantly in recent years. In this paper, besides the general introduction of agent-based modeling approach, four main challenges in modeling water resources systems have been discussed: Designing agents’ behaviors; linking social and ecological sections; spatial representation; calibration, verification and validation. As agricultural sector is the main user of water resources, in this paper, valid papers, with high citations, were analyzed to clarify the challenges and build a correct approach toward application of these models in water resources management field... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Agent
  • Water resource system
  • Social-ecological
  • Modeling challenges
Akhbari M, Grigg NS (2013) A Framework for an agent-based model to manage water resources conflicts. Water Resources Management 27(11): 4039-4052
Anderies JM, Janssen MA, Ostrom E (2004) A framework to analyze the robustness of social-ecological systems from an institutional perspective. Ecology and Society 9(1): 18
Barreteau O, Bousquet F, Millier C, Weber J (2004) Suitability of multi-agent simulations to study irrigated system viability: application to case studies in the Senegal River Valley. Agricultural Systems 80(3): 255-275
Becu N, Perez P, Walker A, Barreteau O, Le Page C (2003) Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand Description of the CATCHSCAPE model. Ecological Modelling 170(2): 319-331
Berger T (2001) Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: A simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis. Agricultural Economics 25(2-3): 245-260
Berger T, Birner R, McCarthy N, Díaz J, Wittmer H (2007) Capturing the complexity of water uses and water users within a multi - Agent framework. Water Resources Management 21(1): 129-148
Berglund E (2015) Using agent-based modeling for water resources planning and management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 141(11): 04015025
Castilla-Rho JC, Mariethoz G, Rojas R, Andersen MS, Kelly BFJ (2015) An agent-based platform for simulating complex human–aquifer interactions in managed groundwater systems. Environmental Modelling & Software 73: 305-323
Davidsson P, Holmgren J, Kyhlbäck H, Mengistu D, Persson M (2007) Applications of agent based simulation. Multi-agent-based simulation VII. Antunes L, Takadama K, Springer Berlin Heidelberg. 4442: 15-27
Feuillette S, Bousquet F, Le Goulven P (2003) SINUSE: a multi-agent model to negotiate water demand management on a free access water table. Environmental Modelling & Software 18(5): 413-427
Filatova T, Polhill JG, van Ewijk S (2016) Regime shifts in coupled socio-environmental systems: Review of modelling challenges and approaches. Environmental Modelling & Software 75: 333-347
Filatova T, Verburg PH, Parker DC, Stannard CA (2013) Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: Challenges and prospects. Environmental Modelling & Software 45: 1-7
Folke C, Hahn T, Olsson P, Norberg J (2005) Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 30(1): 441-473
Giuliani M, Castelletti A (2013) Assessing the value of cooperation and information exchange in large water resources systems by agent-based optimization. Water Resources Research 49(7): 3912-3926
Grimm V, Berger U, Bastiansen F, Eliassen S, Ginot V, Giske J, Goss-Custard J, Grand T, Heinz SK, Huse G, Huth A, Jepsen JU, Jørgensen C, Mooij WM, Müller B, Pe'er G, Piou C, Railsback SF, Robbins AM, Robbins MM, Rossmanith E, Rüger N, Strand E, Souissi S, Stillman RA, Vabø R, Visser U, DeAngelis DL (2006) A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecological Modelling 198(1-2): 115-126
Grimm V, Berger U, DeAngelis DL, Polhill JG, Giske J, Railsback SF (2010) The ODD protocol: A review and first update. Ecological Modelling 221(23): 2760-2768
Hill MC (1998) Methods and guidelines for effective model calibration, US Geological Survey Denver, CO, USA.
Holland JH (2006) Studying complex adaptive systems. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity 19(1): 1-8
Holtz G, Pahl-Wostl C (2012) An agent-based model of groundwater over-exploitation in the Upper Guadiana, Spain. Regional Environmental Change 12(1): 95-121
Jennings NR (2000) On agent-based software engineering. Artificial Intelligence, 117, 277-296
Kelly RA, Jakeman AJ, Barreteau O, Borsuk ME, ElSawah S, Hamilton SH, Henriksen HJ, Kuikka S, Maier HR, Rizzoli AE, van Delden H, Voinov AA (2013) Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environmental Modelling and Software 47: 159-181
Kock BE (2008) Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. MS thesis. 192p
Kotz C, Hiessl H (2005) Analysis of system innovation in urban water infrastructure systems: An agent-based modelling approach. Water Science and Technology: Water Supply 5(2): 135-144
Le Bars M, Attonaty JM, Pinson S, Ferrand N (2005) An agent-based simulation testing the impact of water allocation on farmers' collective behaviors. Simulation 81(3): 223-235
Levin S, Xepapadeas T, Crépin AS, Norberg J, De Zeeuw A, Folke C, Hughes T, Arrow K, Barrett S, Daily G, Ehrlich P, Kautsky N, Mäler KG, Polasky S, Troell M, Vincent JR, Walker B (2013) Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: Modeling and policy implications. Environment and Development Economics 18(2): 111-132
Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell AN, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, Ostrom E, Ouyang Z, Provencher W, Redman CL, Schneider SH, Taylor WW (2007) Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317(5844): 1513-1516
MacAl CM, North MJ (2010) Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation. Journal of Simulation 4(3): 151-162
Madani K, Dinar A (2012) Cooperative institutions for sustainable common pool resource management: Application to groundwater. Water Resources Research 48(9)
Mulligan KB, Brown C, Yang YCE, Ahlfeld DP (2014) Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling. Water Resources Research 50(3): 2257-2274
Ng TL, Eheart JW, Cai X, Braden JB (2011) An agent-based model of farmer decision-making and water quality impacts at the watershed scale under markets for carbon allowances and a second-generation biofuel crop. Water Resources Research 47 (9)
Ostrom E (2007) A diagnostic approach for going beyond panaceas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(39): 15181-15187
Redman CL, Grove JM, Kuby LH (2004) Integrating social science into the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network: Social dimensions of ecological change and ecological dimensions of social change. Ecosystems 7(2): 161-171
Rieker JD, Labadie JW (2012) An intelligent agent for optimal river-reservoir system management. Water Resources Research 48(9)
Schlüter M, Pahl-Wostl C (2007) Mechanisms of resilience in common-pool resource management systems: An agent-based model of water use in a river basin. Ecology and Society 12(2): 4
Sun Z, Müller D (2013) A framework for modeling payments for ecosystem services with agent-based models, Bayesian belief networks and opinion dynamics models. Environmental Modelling & Software 45: 15-28
Turner II, B. L., P. A. Matson, J. J. McCarthy, R. W. Corell, L. Christensen, N. Eckley, G. K. Hovelsrud-Broda, J. X. Kasperson, R. E. Kasperson, A. Luers, M. L. Martello, S. Mathiesen, R. Naylor, C. Polsky, A. Pulsipher, A. Schiller, H. Selin and N. Tyler (2003) Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 100(14): 8080-8085
van Oel PR, Krol MS, Hoekstra AY (2012) Application of multi-agent simulation to evaluate the influence of reservoir operation strategies on the distribution of water availability in the semi-arid Jaguaribe basin, Brazil. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 47–48: 173-181
van Oel PR, Krol MS, Hoekstra AY, Taddei RR (2010) Feedback mechanisms between water availability and water use in a semi-arid river basin: A spatially explicit multi-agent simulation approach. Environmental Modelling & Software 25(4): 433-443
Voinov A, Bousquet F (2010) Modelling with stakeholders. Environmental Modelling & Software 25(11): 1268-1281
Wooldridge M. (1997) Agent-based software engineering. In Proc. of IEE- Software Engineering, 144(1), pp.26-37