مدیریت تخصیص منابع آب در حوضة آبخیز حبله‌رود با ترکیب مدل‌های SWAT و WEAP

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه گیلان

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

در این مطالعه از ترکیب دو مدل SWAT و WEAP به‌منظور برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت یکپارچة تخصیص منابع آب در حوضه آبخیز حبله‌رود استفاده شده است. مدل SWAT در دورة آماری 2012-1998 با استفاده از داده‌های آبدهی ماهانه در خروجی حوضه، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. مقادیر ضریب تبیین (R2)، ضریب کارآیی نش- ساتکلیف (NS)، جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و کارآیی مدل (ME) در مرحلة اعتبارسنجی به‌‌ترتیب برابر با 8/0، 71/0، 81/1 و 89/0 به‌دست آمدند. با توجه به این مقادیر، عملکرد مدل SWAT را می‌توان در طبقه‌بندی "خوب" قرار داد. سپس برای شبیه‌سازی منابع و مصارف حوضه و ارزیابی سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی، آبدهی برآوردشده با استفاده از مدل SWAT برای هر یک از زیرحوضه‌ها، وارد مدل WEAP شد و درصد تأمین نیاز برای هر یک از گره‌ها در شرایط موجود (سناریوی مرجع) حاصل شد. نتایج نشان داد اراضی کشاورزیِ محدودة فیروزکوه و اراضیِ شبکة آبیاری و زهکشی گرمسار با بحران کمبود آب به‌ویژه در ماه‌های گرم سال مواجه هستند. بنابراین سناریوهایی مانند تغییر الگوی کشت، کاهش سطح زیر کشت، کاهش سرانة مصرف آب در گره‌های نیاز شهری و روستایی، افزایش راندمان آبیاری و سناریوهای ترکیبی، برای به تعادل رساندن عرضه و تقاضای آب در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد با به‌کارگیری هم‌زمان راهبردهای مختلف مدیریت مصرف آب (افزایش راندمان آبیاری، کاهش سرانة مصرف و تغییر الگوی کشت)، بهتر از حالت استفادة منفرد از هر کدام از سناریوها می‌توان برداشت آب از منابع مختلف را کاهش داد و به تعادل در عرضه و تقاضای آب در حوضه دست یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Water Resources Allocation Management in the Hablehroud Basin Using a Combination of the SWAT and WEAP Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jaber Salehpoor 1
  • Afshin Ashrafzadeh 2
  • Seyed Ali Moussavi 2
1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan
2 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan
چکیده [English]

In this study, a combination of the SWAT and WEAP models were utilized for planning and integrated water resources allocation management in the Hablehroud Basin. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the monthly discharge at the basin outlet in the period of 1998-2012. The coefficient of determination, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error, and model efficiency, in validation phase were calculated 0.80, 0.71, 1.81 and 0.89, respectively. These values suggest that the model performance can be classified as “good”. To simulate the supply and demand in the basin and to assess different management scenarios, the estimated flows produced by SWAT for each subbasin were considered as the input for the WEAP model and the percentage of met demand in the present situation (Reference scenario) for each demand node was obtained. The results showed that the agricultural lands of Firoozkouh and Garmsar irrigation and drainage network are facing a shortage of water, especially in the warm months of the year. Therefore, scenarios such as changing cropping pattern, reducing crop area, reducing water per capita in urban and rural demand nodes, increasing irrigation efficiency and combined scenarios were considered to balance the supply and demand of water. The results showed that water consumption reduction and striking a balance between the supply and demand in the basin can be better achieved if simultaneous use of different water management strategies (increasing irrigation efficiency, per capita reduction, and crop pattern change) are to be considered in the basin.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrologic Modeling
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Integrated Management
  • Water allocation
Abbaspour KC, Yang J, Maximov I, Siber R, Bogner K, Mieleitner J, Zobrist J, Srinivasan R (2007) Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. Journal of Hydrology 333(2):413–430
Adgolign TB, Rao GS, Abbulu Y (2016) WEAP modeling of surface water resources allocation in Didessa Sub-Basin, West Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management 2(1):55–70
Ahmadi A, Zadehvakili N, Safavi HR, Ohab Yazdi SA (2015) Development of a dynamic planning model for surface and groundwater allocation, Case study: Zayandehroud River Basin. Iran-Water Resources Research 11(1):21–31 (In Persian)
Ahmadzadeh H, Morid S, Delavar M (2014) Evaluation yield of sunflower (Farrokh cultivar) under effects of conventional deficit irrigation and partial root zone drying. Journal of Water and Soil 28(5):876889 (InPersian)
Arnold JG, Srinivasan P, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modelling and assessment, Part I: Model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34(1):73–89
ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) (1998) Sustainability criteria for water resource systems. Prepared by the Task Committee on Sustainability Criteria, Water Resources Planning and Management Division, American Society of Civil Engineers and the working group of UNESCO/IHP IV Project M-4.3
Bagheri Harooni MH, Morid S (2013) Comparison of WEAP and MIKE BASIN models in water resources allocation (Case Study: Tlavar River). Journal of Water and Soil Conservation 20(1):151-167 (In Persian)
Delavar M, Morid S, Nikbakht N (2011) Distributed snowmelt simulation in ungauged mountainous catchments, Case study: Imamzadeh Davoud Catchment. Iran-Water Resources Research 7(3):41–50 (In Persian)
Donigian AS (2000) HSPF training workshop handbook and CD: Lecture 19, Calibration and verification issues, slide L19–22. US EPA, Office of Water, Office of Science and Technology, Washington, D.C.
Du B, Ji X, Harmel RD, Hauck LM (2009) Evaluation of a watershed model for estimating daily flow using limited flow measurements. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 45(2):475–484
Faiz MA, Liu D, Fu Q, Uzair M, Khan MI, Baig F, Li T, Cui S (2017) Stream flow variability and drought severity in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, In Press:1–8
Faramarzi M, Abbaspour KC, Schulin R, Yang H (2009) Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran. Hydrological Processes 23(3):486–501
George B, Malano H, Davidson B, Hellegers P, Bharati L, Massuel S (2011) An integrated hydro-economic modelling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies I: Model development. Agricultural water management 98(5):733-746
Havrylenko SB, Bodoque JM, Srinivasan R, Zucarelli GV, Mercuri P (2016) Assessment of the soil water content in the Pampas region using SWAT. Catena 137:298–309
Hum NNMF, Abdul-Talib S (2016) Modeling optimal water allocation by managing the demands in Selangor. In: Proc. of International Symposium on Flood Research and Management (ISFRAM 2015), 5–6 Oct, Shah Alam, Malaysia, 93–104
Kavian A, Golshan M, Rouhani H, Esmali Ouri A (2015) Simulation of runoff and sediment yield in Haraz River Basin in Mazandaran using SWAT model. Physical Geography Research Quarterly 47(2):197–211 (In Persian)
Kermanshahi S, Davari K, Hasheminia S , Farid Hosseini A, Ansari H (2013) Using the WEAP model to assess the impact of irrigation water use management on water resources of NeyshabourPlane. Journal of Water and Soil 27(3):495–505 (In Persian)
Kim KB, Kwon HH; Han D (2018) Exploration of warm-up period in conceptual hydrological modelling. Journal of Hydrology 556:194–210
Lu Z, Zou S, Xiao H, Zheng C, Yin Z, Wang W (2015) Comprehensive hydrologic calibration of SWAT and water balance analysis in mountainous watersheds in northwest China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 79:76–85
Meaurio M, Zabaleta A, Uriarte JA, Srinivasan R, Antigüedad I (2015) Evaluation of SWAT models performance to simulate streamflow spatial origin. The case of a small forested watershed. Journal of Hydrology 525:326–334
Mehta VK, Haden VR, Joyce BA, Purkey DR, Jackson LE (2013) Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California. Agricultural Water Management 117:70–82
Moazenzadeh R, Ghahraman B, Arshad S, Davary K (2016) Improving watershed modeling with aggregation of the main hydrological components in SWAT model. Iran-Water Resources Research 12(3):65–79 (In Persian)
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE 50(3):885–900
Movahed Atar F, Samadi H (2013) Evaluation of Zayanderud Dam operation during drought periodby using WEAP model. Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Water Engineering 4(14):18–28 (In Persian)
Psomas A, Panagopoulos Y, Konsta D, Mimikou M (2016) Designing water efficiency measures in a catchment in Greece using WEAP and SWAT models. Procedia Engineering 162:269–276
Rostamian R, Jaleh A, Afyuni M, Mousavi SF, Heidarpour M, Jalalian A, Abbaspour KC (2008) Application of a SWAT model for estimating runoff and sediment in two mountainous basins in central Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal 53(5):977–988
Sauvage S, Oeurng C, Sanchez-Perez JM (2011) Assessment of hydrology, sediment and yield in large agricultural catchment using the SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology 401:145–153
Wang X, Melesse AM (2005) Evaluation of the SWAT models snowmelt hydrology in a northwestern Minnesota watershed. Transactions of the ASAE 48(4):1–18
Yates D, Sieber J, Purkey D, Huber-Lee A (2005) WEAP21-A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model Part 1: Model characteristics. Water International 30(4):487–500