توسعه مدل عامل بنیان جهت احیای منابع آب زیرزمینی با رویکرد مشارکتی: مطالعه موردی دشت شبستر-صوفیان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی عمران- آب/دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز.

2 استاد/ گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و پژوهشکده محیط زیست دانشگاه تبریز.

چکیده

اتکای بخش های زیادی از کشور بر منابع آب زیرزمینی از یک طرف و افت روزافزون سطح تراز ایستابی آبخوان ها از طرف دیگر اهمیت توجه به این بخش از منابع آب را بیش از پیش افزایش داده است. به دلیل پیچیدگی های سیستم های اجتماعی-زیست محیطی مرتبط با منابع آب زیرزمینی، نیاز به استفاده از ابزارهایی است که بتواند این پیچیدگی ها را در قالب روابط عامل های موثر مدل نماید. مدل سازی عامل بنیان، شبیه سازی کامپیوتری با رویکردی جامع نگر از ذینفعان یا همان عامل هایی است که با یکدیگر و با محیط خود بر اساس اصول رفتاری خاص تعامل می کنند. در این مقاله، با کاربرد مدل سازی عامل بنیان رفتار کشاورزان، عوامل نهادی موثر، آبخوان و نیز روابط آن ها در دشت شبستر-صوفیان با مشارکت ذینفعان از طریق به کارگیری مصاحبه ها و پرسش نامه های نیمه ساختاریافته مدل شده است. نتایج بررسی اجرای پنج سناریوی نمونه نشان می دهد در صورت هماهنگی مناسب نهادها و جلب مشارکت کشاورزان، ضمن افزایش درآمد کشاورزان، می توان در طول 10 سال، 202 میلیون مترمکعب از برداشت چاه ها را کاهش داده و در نتیجه حدود 40 درصد بیلان منفی آبخوان را جبران نمود. با استفاده از این مدل می توان فهم مناسب تری از سیستم پیچیده مدیریت منابع آب زیرزمینی به دست آورده، مشارکت ذینفعان را جلب کرده و با تعریف سناریوها در فرآیندی مشارکتی، به راهکارهای بهتر در فرآیند تصمیم گیری دست یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

An Agent-Based Model to Improve Groundwater Resources Conditions with a Participatory Approach in the Shabestar-Sofian Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Javad Anbari 1
  • Mahdi Zarghami 2
1 PhD Candidate, Department of Water Resources Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, School of Civil Engineering and Institute of Environment, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Regarding the supply of large amount of water demand from groundwater resources on the one hand, and increasing water level drop of the aquifers on the other hand, the importance of groundwater resources management is significantly increasing. Due to the complexities in the socio-ecological systems related to the groundwater resources, there is a need for tools to model these complexities in the form of effective agents’ relations. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computer simulation with a comprehensive approach of stakeholders, or agents that interact with each other and with their environment based on certain behavioral principles. In this paper, farmers, effective institutional agents and aquifer behaviors and their interactions in the Shabestar-Sofian plain is modeled using ABM with stakeholder participation through interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. The results of the implementation of five sample scenarios show that if the institutions are properly coordinated and the participation of farmers is attracted, it could be possible to reduce 202 million cubic meters of wells extraction over 10 years, in addition to increasing the income of farmers simultaneously and to compensate about 40 percent of negative groundwater balance. Using this model, a better understanding of the sophisticated system of groundwater resources management can be obtained, stakeholder participation can be attracted, and by defining scenarios in a participatory process, better solutions can be achieved in the decision-making process.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Groundwater resources management
  • Water governance
  • Social-ecological
  • Shabestar-Sofian aquifer
Abbaszadeh M (2012) A contemplation on validity and reliability in qualitative research. Applied Sociology 23(1):19-34 (In Persian)
Agricultural Engineering Research Institute (2015) Improving the efficiency of water use. Technical Report (In Persian)
Akhbari M, Grigg NS (2013) A framework for an agent-based model to manage water resources conflicts. Water Resources Management 27(11):4039-4052
Akhbari M, Grigg NS (2015) Managing water resources conflicts: Modelling behavior in a decision tool. Water Resources Management 29(14):5201-5216
Al-Amin S, Berglund EZ, Larson KL (2015) Agent-based modeling to simulate demand management strategies for shared groundwater resources. In: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems (ASCE 2015), May 17-21, Austin, Texas
An L (2012) Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models. Ecological Modelling 229:25-36
Andreas MR (2003) Validity and reliability tests in case study research: a literature review with “hands-on applications for each research phase. Qualitative Market Research 6(2):75-86
Bakarji J, O’Malley D, Vesselinov VV (2017) Agent-based socio-hydrological hybrid modeling for water resource management. Water Resources Management 31(12):3881-3898
Barari MH, Bagheri A, Hashemi SM (2016) Analysis of the issues of Lake Zrêbar in a context of integrated water resources management using a stakeholders' participatory approach in a basin scale. Iran-Water Resources Research 12(2):1-12 (In Persian)
Bars ML, Attonaty JM, Pinson S (2002) An agent-based simulation for water sharing between different users. In: Xth EAAE Congress: Exploring Diversity in the European Agri-Food System, 28-31 August, Zaragoza (Spain)
Barreteau O, Sauquet E, Riaux J, Gailliard N, Barbier R (2014) Advances in social simulation: Agent based simulation of drought management in practice. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 237-248
Belaqziz S, El Fazzikia A, Mangiarottib S, Le Pageb M, Khabbac S, Er Rakid S, El Adnania M, Jarlanb L (2013) An agent based modeling for the gravity irrigation management. Procedia Environmental Sciences 19:804-813
Bellifemine F, Caire G, Trucco T, Rimassa G (2010) JADE Programmer's Guide. Telecom Italia S.P.A., Boston, USA
Berglund EZ (2015) Using agent-based modeling for water resources planning and management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 141(11):1-17
Castilla-Rho JC, Mariethoz G, Rojas R, Andersen MS, Kelly BFJ (2015) An agent-based platform for simulating complex human-aquifer interactions in managed groundwater systems. Environmental Modelling and Software 73:305-323
Chu J, Wang C, Chen J, Wang H (2009) Agent-based residential water use behavior simulation and policy implications: A case-study in Beijing City. Water Resources Management 23:3267-3295
Dehghan M, Rezayian S, Naderi J (2011) Assessment of the groundwater quality changes in Shabestar plain using GIS. In: Geometric Conference 2011, Iran National Cartographic Center, Tehran, Iran (In Persian)
Dinpazhoh Y, Fakheri-Fard A, Hassanpoor MA, Beheshtee-Vayghan V (2014) Trend analysis of groundwater quality in Shabestar-Sofain plain. Irrigation Sciences and Engineering 38(1):55-69 (In Persian)
Farmer JD, Foley D (2009) The economy needs agent-based modelling. Nature 460(7256):685-686
Ghallehban-Tekmedash M, Taheri-Tizro A, Zare-Abyane H (2015) Agent based modeling framework in simulation of stakeholder’s behavior for managing water resources. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development 2(1):87-94 (In Persian)
Gilbert N (2008) Agent-based models. Sage Publications, California, USA
Ghafouri Fard S, Bagheri A, Shajari S (2015) Stakeholders assessment in water sector (Case study: Rafsanjan area). Iran-Water Resources Research 11(2):16-28 (In Persian)
 Helbing D, Balietti S (2011) How to do agent-based simulations in the future: from modeling social mechanisms to emergent phenomena and interactive systems design. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, USA
Holtz G, Pahl-Wostl C (2012) An agent-based model of groundwater over-exploitation in the Upper Guadiana, Spain. Regional Environmental Change 12(1):95-121
Janssen S, van Ittersum MK (2007) Assessing farm innovation and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models. Agricultural Systems 94:622-636
Kock BE (2008) Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict. M.Sc. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
Lotfi S, Araghinejad S (2017) A review on challenges in application of agent-based models in water resources
systems. Iran-Water Resources Research 13(2):115-126 (In Persian)
Macal CM, North MJ (2006) Tutorial on agent-based modeling and simulation. In: Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference (IEEE), 73-83
Macal CM, North MJ (2010) Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation. Journal of Simulation 4:151-162
Ohab-Yazdi SA and Ahmadi A (2018) Simulation of the effective agents’ behavior on water resources management for evaluation of their interactions under agent-based model framework in lenjanat sub-basin of Zayandehrood river basin. Iran-Water Resources Research 14(2):131-149 (In Persian)
Reeves HW, Zellner ML (2010) Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making. Groundwater 48(5):649-660
Schelling TC (1971) Dynamic models of segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1:143-186
Schlüter M, Pahl-Wostl C (2007) Mechanisms of resilience in common-pool resource management systems: an agent-based model of water use in a river basin. Ecology and Society 12(2):4-26
Statistical Center of Iran (2016) The yields price and cost of agricultural services in rural areas. Technical Report (In Persian)
Torres AS (2013) Modelling the future water infrastructure of cities. Ph.D. Dissertation, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands
Zeinali A, Hassanpoor MA, Mirheidari F (2011) Adverse consequences of declining groundwater level in Shabestar-Sofian plain and approach of  the balance maintenance. In: Second National Conference of Applied Research in Iran Water Resources, May 18-19, Zanjan, Iran (In Persian) 
Zellner ML (2008) Embracing complexity and uncertainty: the potential of agent-based modeling for environmental planning and policy. Planning Theory & Practice 9(4):437-457