توسعه رویکرد خاکستری در مدیریت منابع آب با استفاده از شاخص‌‌های ریسک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مهندسی عمران /دانشگاه قم

2 گروه مهندسی عمران/هیات علمی دانشگاه

چکیده

هدف از انجام پژوهش حاضر، توسعه روشهای تصمیمگیری چندمعیاره کوپراس و کوپراس خاکستری در انتخاب بهترین گزینه سازگاری با اثرات پدیده تغییر اقلیم در تأمین آب بخش کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز قرنقو در استان آذربایجان شرقی است. بدینمنظور با توجه به شرایط هیدرواقلیمی موجود، سناریوهای سازگاری در بخش کشاورزی انتخاب و با استفاده از نتایج حاصل از مدل ارزیابی و برنامهریزی منابع آب (WEAP)، شاخصهای ریسک در هر سناریو بر پایه روابط ریاضی محاسبه میشوند. بهمنظور اولویتبندی و انتخاب بهترین گزینه، سناریوهای سازگاری بهعنوان گزینهها و شاخصهای ریسک بهعنوان معیار در دو روش تصمیمگیری چندمعیاره کوپراس و کوپراس خاکستری در نظر گرفته میشوند. نتایج نشان میدهندتغییرات شاخصهای ریسک در صورت اعمال سیاستهای سازگاری بهبود یافته، بهطوری که شاخص ریسک خشکسالی با کاهش مصرف آب بهمیزان پنج تا 25 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. هم‌چنین بهترین گزینه سازگاری با اثرات پدیده تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از روش کوپراس گزینه پنجم یعنی کاهش 25 درصد حجم تقاضای آب در بخش کشاورزی است در حالیکه روش کوپراس خاکستری گزینه دوم یعنی کاهش 10 درصدی حجم تقاضا را بهعنوان گزینه برتر معرفی کرد. گرچه همواره باید در نظر داشت که هرگونه پیش بینی نتایج برای سال‌های آینده به‌دلیل شرایط پیچیده اقلیمی و اثرات متغیر ناشی از آن با عدم قطعیت همراه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of the grey approach in water resources management using risk indexes

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parvin Golfam 1
  • Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering/University of Qom
2 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study is to develop COPRAS and Grey COPRAS multi-criteria decision making methods for selection the best alternative for adaptation the effects of climate change in supplying the agricultural sector in Gharranghu basin in East Azerbaijan province. According to the existing hydro-climate conditions, adaptation scenarios in agricultural sectors are selected and based on the results of evaluation and planning water (WEAP), risk indexes in each scenario are calculated based on mathematical equations. In order to prioritize and select the best alternative, adaptation scenarios are considered as alternatives, and risk indexes are regarded as criteria in COPRAS and COPRAS-G multi-criteria decision making methods. Results showed risk indexes will improve by implementing adaptation policies, so that drought risk index would decrease through reduction water consumption from 5% to 25% respectively. Also, the best alternative for adapting the impacts of climate change phenomenon by using COPRAS method was fifth alternative, namely 25% reduction in water demand in agricultural sector, while COPRAS-G method introduced second alternative namely 10% reduction in water demand as preferred alternative. However, it should always be assumed that any prediction of results for the coming years due to complex climatic conditions and the resulting effects of this are associated with uncertainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multi-Criteria Decision-Making
  • COPRAS Method
  • COPRAS-G
  • Risk Indexes
  • Water Resources Management
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