ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی بهینه کشت محصولات زراعی: مطالعه موردی حوضه قره‌سو استان گلستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی/دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل.

2 استادیار/ گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل.

3 استادیار / گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین اهواز.

4 دانشیار / گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و خاک، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

چکیده

این مطالعه با هدف ارزیابی فنی و اقتصادی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر بخش کشاورزی حوضه قره سو در استان گلستان انجام شده است. در قسمت اول، با استفاده از مدل بارش- رواناب IHACRES و داده‌های بارش، دما و رواناب ماهانه در دوره پایه (۲۰۱۰-۱۹۹۴)، میزان رواناب رودخانه قره‌سو در دوره 2040- 2011 شبیه‌سازی شد. سپس، وضعیت احتمالی تخصیص منابع آب و تأمین نیاز بخش کشاورزی توسط مدل WEAP مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در قسمت دوم، برای کاهش اثرات منفی تغییر اقلیم بر بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از مدل اقتصادی برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی، الگوی کشت بهینه با آرمان‌های حداقل مصرف آب و حداکثر سود در آینده تعیین گردید. نتایج قسمت اول نشان داد که رواناب در دوره‌های آتی نسبت به دوره پایه ۳۱/۳۴ درصد کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین، نتایج مدل WEAP، نشان‌دهنده افزایش نیاز تأمین نشده بخش کشاورزی در منطقه مورد مطالعه در دوره آتی می‌باشد. این نتیجه بیانگر این است که در آینده، در صورت ادامه تغییر اقلیم، جهت کاهش اثرات منفی در بخش کشاورزی باید الگوی کشت منطقه به حذف پنبه و افزایش جو و برنج تغییر کند. این تغییرات در نتایج قسمت دوم مدل به واسطه یک مدل برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی مشخص شد. در الگوی بهینه کشت ارائه شده، میزان سود ناخالص کشاورزان منطقه مورد مطالعه در دوره ۲۰۴۰-۲۰۱۱ از ۱۳۸۶ میلیارد ریال به ۱۹۹۱ میلیارد ریال نسبت به سال پایه افزایش می‌یابد. پیشنهاد می‌شود با توجه به این‌که نتایج مدل برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی اهداف متضادی را در برگرفته است، از نتایج آن به عنوان یک راهنما برای مدیران تصمیم‌گیر استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Optimum Cropping Pattern: A Case Study of Ghareso Basin in Golestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elham Kalbali 1
  • Saman Ziaee 2
  • Mostafa Mardani Najafabadi 3
  • Mehdi Zakerinia 4
1 Ph.D.Student Agricultural Economic Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Zabol Univercity.
2 Assistant Professor Agricultural Economic Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Zabol Univercity.
3 Assistant Professor Agricultural Economic Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Ramin University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
4 Associate Professor of Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Water and Soil Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
چکیده [English]

This study was carried out to evaluate the economic and technical effects of climate change on the agricultural sector of Ghareso basin in Golestan province. In the first part, using the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model and rainfall, temperature, and monthly runoff data during the base period (1994-2010), the Ghareso river flow was simulated during the period of 2011-2040. Then, the probabilistic status of water resources allocation and provision of agricultural sector was evaluated by WEAP model. In the second part, in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the agricultural sector, using the goal programming economic model, optimal cultivation with the goals of minimum water consumption and maximum future profits was determined. The results of the first part showed that runoff decreases in the upcoming periods by 31.34% compared to the base period. In addition, the results of the WEAP model indicate an increase in the unmet need of the agricultural sector in the region under study. This result suggests that with the continuation of climate change in the future to reduce the negative effects in agriculture, the region's cultivation pattern should be changed to remove cotton and increase barley and rice. These changes were identified in the results of the second part of the model through the Goal Programming Model. In the optimal cultivation pattern, the gross profit of farmers in the studied area in the period of 2011-2040 increased from 1386 billion Rials to 1991 billion Rials compared to the base year.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Gharehso basin
  • Golestan province
  • WEAP
  • Goal Programming Model
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