Comparing Chow Regression and Stochastic Method for Annual Peak Flood(Case study: Central Alborz Region)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Candidate in Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

3 Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

In this research the level of accuracy for Chow regression and stochastic methods is compared for estimating annual peak flood in central Alborz region. The annual peak flood data in this region were incomplete, and regression method was used for data completion. 23 gauge stations with 20 years common data were selected for the analysis. The observed data at each station was divided into time series of 10, 15 and 20 years preparing 414 time series of annual peak floods for the analysis. Using 7 important frequency distributions including, Normal, 2 parameters Log Normal, 3 parameters Log Normal, 2 parameters Gama, Pearson type 3, Log Pearson type 3, and Gumbel lthe probabilities were accounted for each of these time series. Then the best distribution was chosen and the annual peak floods for 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 50,100,500, and 1000 years return periods were estimated. Peak discharges for these return periods were estimated using chow’s regression and Stochastic methods, and then compared using probability indices such as, MSE and MBE. This research showed that Chow’s regression method gives better results for estimating annual peak flood in the central Alborz region.

Keywords

References

خسروی، م. (1389). بررسی مناسب­ترین توزیع فراوانی دبی حداکثر لحظه­ای سالانه مطالعه موردی در البرز مرکزی. پژوهشنامه مدیریت حوزه آبخیز. شماره اول، بهار و تابستان 1389. ص 96-88.
خسروی، م. (1388). بررسی دقت روش­های رگرسیونی چاو و استوکاستیک برای برآورد دبی حداکثر لحظه­ای سالانه (مطالعه موردی:البرز مرکزی) ،پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشگاه تهران. 102ص.
موسوی، ع. ا. و سپاسخواه، ع. (1368)، تخمین دبی ماکزیمم روزانه در حوزه­های آبریز فاقد آمار در استان فارس. مجموعه مقالات اولین کنفرانس هیدرولوژی ایران. ص133-113.
مهدوی، م. (1384)، "هیدرولوژی کاربردی" ، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران ، ایران.
Chow V.T., 1964, Handbook of applied Hydrology, Mc-Graw-Hill, Book Publishing      Company, New Yourk.
Al-Mashidani et al. (1978), A Simple Version of Gumbel's Method for Flood Estimation.  Hydrological Sciences Bulletin., 23, p. 373-380
Johannes Devries. (2006), Comparing Statistical Approaches to Estimating Floods, David Ford Consulting Engineers 2015 J St., Suite 200 Sacramento, CA 95814.
Marofi. S. (2003), Investigation of the Probability Distribution fitting to Extreme Values of Flood. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, 03102.
Ministry of development of north eastern region, India. (2003), A fluvial geomorphology       perspective on the knowledge base of the Brahmaputra, Background Paper NO. 3. (www.powermin.nic.in/ whats_new/PFR/HP/Gondhala.pdf).
Ministry of development of north eastern region, India, (2004). Khoksar hydro electric project (3X90-30MW) HimachalPradesh.(www.powermin.nic.in/whats_new/pfr/hp/Khoksar.pdf).
Patra K.C. (2001), hydrology and Water Resource Engineering, Alpha science International Ltd, pp. 410-430.

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 09 February 2010
  • Accept Date: 23 January 2012

Share

How to cite

Statistics