The Performance of the Evidence Weighting in GIS for Determining the Effective Factors on the Land Subsidence in Qazvin Plain

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. of Water Resource Management, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Professor, Irrigation & Reclamation Eng. Dept, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (SCWMRI), ARREO, Tehran, Iran.

4 Ph.D. in Geophysics, Geological Survey of Iran (G.S.I.), Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Nowadays, intensified consolidation and land-subsidence led to irreparable damages to financial, environmental and human resources. In this research, land subsidence rate was investigated according to the impacts of the main factors of the aquifer including the geological and hydrodynamic characteristics. Long-term subsidence map was prepared for Qazvin plain based on SENTINEL-1 satellite data from 2015 to 2021 using Differential Interferometry SAR (D-InSAR) method. The maximum of land subsidence value in Qazvin Plain during 2015 to 2021 was equal to 47 cm occurred in southwest areas of the Qazvin province. The subsidence spatial distribution was analyzed according to the Weight-of-Evidence (WOE) method to reveal the aquifer characteristic effects. The water-table decline, hydraulic conductivity, slope, land use, fine-grained soil thickness, geology, and bedrock depth were used in WoE method to determine the impact of each factor on subsidence. The results of WoE, land subsidence hazard potential maps were validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagram. The most effective land subsidence factor in the Qazvin plain were the thickness of fine-grained soil with a value of 3.77, while the influence of water level decline was ranked fourth. The land subsidence potential hazard map was able to predict the future land subsidence with an accuracy of 0.87 that indicated a very good prediction. Although water table decline was responsible for the land-subsidence in general, the results of this study indicated that the thickness of fine-grained soil layer was the most effective factor on the land-subsidence phenomenon.

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References

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Iran-Water Resources Research
Volume 19, Issue 3 - Serial Number 66
Special Issue: Groundwater
September 2023
Pages 118-135

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History

  • Receive Date: 21 May 2023
  • Revise Date: 16 July 2023
  • Accept Date: 25 July 2023

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