Development of ADI as a Aggregate Drought Index based on Principle Component Analysis for Monitoring Agricultural Drought in Golestan Province- Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate, Dept of Water Eng, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

2 Associate Prof, Dept of Water Eng, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

3 Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Univariate indices are so useful for a certain purpose but arenot able to monitor drought characteristics comprehensively. In this study the multivariate index (ADI) has developed based on Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique by using the results of drought indices as inputs to monitor agricultural drought conditions in Golestan province. For this purpose the daily metrological variables from 10 synoptic and evaporative stations during 33 hydrological years were chosen to compute the values of 5 drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Evapotranspiration–Precipitation Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Z-Index and Soil Moisture Index (SMI) in monthly timescale. In continue by applying PCA technique and considering all established components, the ADI drought index was developed based on linear combinations of derivation components for each of studied stations. finally the ADI results were compared to common indices such as SPEI and SPI. Based on the results a strong correlation coefficient based on Kendal –tau (greater than 0.8) were detected between ADI and SPEI indices in wet regions and months including November to March while a degree of correlation were reduced during warm months of April to June. A Comparative Study results of ADI with SPEI showed that the ADI index as a multivariate index could reflect the effects of input drought indices such as SMI and Z-Index for comprehensive drought monitoring.

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