واکاوی نوسانات دمای جنوب غرب ایران بر اساس مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو و شبکه عصبی (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاههای جلگه ای و کوهپایه ای)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد / مرکز ملی خشکسالی و مدیریت بحران هواشناسی.

2 دکتری / آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه زنجان، ایران.

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه بررسی و تحلیل چرخه‌های و جهش‌های میانگین دمای جنوب غرب ایران بر اساس شبکه‌های عصبی و مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم می‌باشد. داده‌های مورداستفاده در این پژوهش شامل میانگین دمای روزانه ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک اهواز، آبادان، دزفول، شهرکرد، لرستان و همدان داده‌های باز تحلیل NCEP و خروجی‌های مدل HadCM3 داده‌های نسل سوم مدل جهانی اقلیم تحت سناریو‌ی A2 و B2 برای دوره پایه (1991-1961 میلادی) می‌باشد. در این مطالعه به جز مراحل پیش‌بینی سایر مراحل از جمله واسنجی داده‌ها، ارزیابی و صحت سنجی مدل در نرم‌افزار متلب و برای ترسیم نقشه‌ها از سورفر بهره گرفته شده است. میزان برآورد دما بر اساس خروجی مدل‌های گردش عمومی Hadcm3 در سناریوی A2a و B2a در اکثر نواحی تا سال 2099 از روند افزایشی تا 5/1 درجه سانتی‌گراد برخوردار بوده است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل چرخه‌های نشان داد که دما بر اساس خروجی شبکه‌های عصبی و مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو در سناریوی A2a و B2a دارای چرخه‌های کوتاه‌مدت 2 تا 4 ساله حاکم است. نتایج حاصل از آماره الکساندر سون بیانگر این است که میانگین دمای جنوب غرب ایران از سال 2050 به بعد دارای جهش معنی‌دارای می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on General Circulation Model and Neural Network (Case Study: Plain and Mountainous Stations)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hengameh Shiravand 1
  • Mehdi Dostkamiyan 2
1 Expert of the National Center for Drought and Meteorological Crisis Management, Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. in Climatology, Zanjan University.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study was to analyze the cycle-by and mutations South West's average temperature based on neural networks and models of general circulation of the atmosphere under climate change scenarios is. The data used in this study consisted of an average daily temperature stations in Ahwaz, Abadan, Branch, Branch, Lorestan, Sanandaj, turpentine, Arak and Hamadan NCEP analyzes the data and outputs data model HadCM3 global climate model is the third generation under the A2 and B2 scenarios for the base period (1991-1961 AD) is. In this study, except for the prediction of other Mrajl including calibration data, assessment and validation of the model in MATLAB and have been used to map the Svrfr. The temperature is estimated based on the output of general circulation models scenario A2a and B2a Hadcm3 in most areas by the year 2099 has increased by 5.1 ° C has enjoyed. The results of the analysis showed that the temperature cycles based on the output of neural networks and models of general circulation in the scenario A2a and B2a with short cycles 2 to 4 years of ruling. The results of the test show that the average temperature on the South West Alexander Lumber Iran from 2050 onwards mutation means of extrusion.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Atmospheric General Circulation Models
  • Neural Networks
  • Temperature
  • fluctuation
  • Alksanderson
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