بهینه‌سازی تبادل آب مجازی در شرایط مختلف کشش قیمتی محصولات کشاورزی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه دریاچه ارومیه)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد/ گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/ مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد/ گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.

4 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب/ گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر با هدف حداکثرکردن درآمد حوضه آبخیز ارومیه، مدل بهینه‌سازی کلاسیک خطی تدوین شد تا با اعمال سه سطح از محدودیت‌هایی شامل سیاست‌های الگوی کشت، مقدار آب در دسترس و قیمت ثابت و قیمت با کشش برای محصولات کشاورزی، تحت 18 سناریو، مقدار تولید و واردات خالص بهینه آب مجازی (به عنوان هدف) برای حوضه تعیین شود. قیود در نظر گرفته شده در بهینه‌سازی مقدار آب مجازی مصرفی حوضه، مقدار آب قابل دسترس و بازه افزایش یا کاهش مقدار تولید را شامل شد. نتایج بدست آمده با توجه به تعداد محصولات مورد مطالعه تنوع بسیاری داشته است اما بطور کلی برای محصولات زراعی و باغی، بیش‌ترین تغییرات تولید و واردات خالص آب مجازی (نسبت به حال حاضر) برای محصولات پیاز، قارچ، سیب و انگور مشاهده شد. در بررسی تغییرات درآمد حوضه در اثر اعمال سناریوهای تدوین شده مشخص شد در سناریویی که مقدار آب در دسترس آن 60 درصد حال حاضر و قیمت محصولات در آن با کشش قیمتی مطرح شده است، بالاترین سوددهی را داشته و سناریوی با این ویژگی‌های مذکور، مطلوب‌ترین سناریو به شمار می‌رود. در مجموع با اعمال سناریوی منتخب در بیش از یک سوم محصولات، مقدار بهینه سطح زیرکشت کم‌تر از حال حاضر است و باید بر مقدار واردات آن‌ها از خارج مرزهای حوضه افزوده شود. براساس نتایج این تحقیق، با واردات آب مجازی، از فشار وارد بر منابع آب حوضه کاسته می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimization of Virtual Water Exchange for Different Price Elasticity of Agricultural Products (Case study: Urmia Lake Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib 1
  • Mirmohammad Azadkhorasani 2
  • Mahmoud Oladgaragoz 3
  • Ali Mohammadi 4
1 Professor at Department of Irrigation and Drainage, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran.
2 M.Sc. student in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran.
3 PhD student in Economy, Department of Economy, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
4 PhD student in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran.
چکیده [English]

In this research, with the aim of maximizing the income of Lake Urmia basin, a linear optimization model was developed to apply three kinds of constraints, including cropping pattern, available water and constant prices and price elasticity of agricultural products to optimize crop production and net imports of crop’s virtual water under 18 scenarios. The considered constrains in optimization were consumed virtual water in the basin, available water and boundaries of increasing or decreasing in the crop production. Regarding the number of studied crops, results have a wide variation but in general, for farm crops and horticulture products, the largest changes in production and net imports of virtual water (comparing to the present condition) were observed for onion, mushroom, apple and grape. In examining the changes in basin income due to the implementation of developed scenarios, it was found that the scenario in which the available water is 60% of the present condition and price elasticity is applied has the highest profitability and is considered to be the most favorable scenario. Altogether, with the application of the proposed scenario, the optimum level of areas under cultivation is less than present for more than a third of the products, and the imports of these products should be increased for the basin. According to the results of this research, the pressure on the water resources of the basin will be reduces by importing virtual water.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • cropping pattern
  • optimization
  • Price Elasticity
  • virtual water
  • Urmia
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