الگوی تصمیم‌گیری در شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی معیارهای موثر در طرح‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای مبتنی بر روش فرآیند تحلیل شبکه‌ای (ANP) و سلسله مراتبی (AHP)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری سازه‌های آبی/ گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کرج، دانشگاه تهران.

2 دانشیار / گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کرج، دانشگاه تهران

3 استاد / گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کرج، دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

رشد جمعیت و توسعه فعالیت‌های صنعتی و کشاورزی سبب درخواست روزافزون منابع آبی شده است که یکی از راه‌های جبران کمبود آب، انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای است. با گذشت زمان و پیشرفت اجرایی این طرح‌ها، چالش‌های متعدد و اساسی در زمینه‌های مختلف از جمله زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فنی پدید آمده و تصمیم‌گیری در مورد اجرا و انتخاب آن‌ها را دشوار نموده است. بدین منظور شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی دقیق‌ترِ معیارها و شاخصه‌های اثرگذار در این طرح‌ها ضروری است. در این مقاله، ابتدا معیارها و شاخصه‌ها با روش دلفی به هشت معیار اصلی طبقه‌بندی ‌شده و سپس با روش تحلیل شبکه‌ای (ANP) و سلسله مراتبی (AHP) اولویت‌بندی شدند. نتایج نشان داد که در هر دو روش، اولویت معیارهای اصلی یکسان بوده و معیار سیاسی و امنیتی، بهداشتی و درمانی و زیست‌محیطی به ترتیب با وزن نرمال 36/0، 16/0 و 15/0 در رتبه‌های اول تا سوم قراردارند. در روش AHP، ارجحیت گزینه‌های انتقال با هدف تأمین آب شرب، کشاورزی، صنعتی و محیط زیستی به ترتیب 56، 17، 16 و 11 درصد است. ولی در ANP گزینه آب شرب با 56 درصد در رتبه نخست بوده و آب صنعتی با 18 درصد، آب کشاورزی با 14 درصد و آب محیط زیستی با 12 درصد به ترتیب در رتبه‌های دوم تا چهارم قرار گرفتند. نتایج به‌دست آمده، بیانگر دقت و واقع‌بینانه‌تر بودن نتایج روش ANP در اولویت‌بندی‌ گزینه‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Decision Making Pattern in Identifying and Ranking Effective Criteria in Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects Based on Network Analysis Process and Analytical Hierarchy Process

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohamad Hosnavi Atashgah 1
  • Mehdi Yasi 2
  • Ebrahim Amiri Takaldani 3
1 - Ph.D. Student in Water Structures, Department of Irrigation and Rehabilitation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Karaj Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Rehabilitation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Karaj Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Rehabilitation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Karaj Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Population growth and the development of industrial and agricultural activities have led to the increasing demand for more water resources. One of the ways to compensate for water scarcity is Inter-Basin Water Transfer (IBWT). Over time and with the progress of implementation of these projects, numerous challenges such as environmental, economic, social and technical issues have arisen in a variety of areas that make difficult to decide on their implementation and selection. For this purpose, it is necessary to identify and prioritize effective criteria and indicators more precisely of these projects. In this paper, the criteria and indices were first classified by Delphi method into 8 main criteria and then they were prioritized by ANP and AHP. The results showed that the priority of the main criteria that in both methods were the same and the normal weight of political-security, health and environmental criteria is 0.36, 0.16 and 0.15, respectively. In AHP, transmission options aimed at supplying urban, agricultural, industrial and environmental water are 56%, 17%, 16% and 11%, respectively. But in the ANP, drinking water is the first priority with 56 percent, followed by industrial water with 18 percent, agricultural water with 14 percent and environmental water with 12 percent, respectively. The results show the accuracy and precision of the use of the ANP model in ranking among different alternatives in any inter-basin water transfer projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Transfer
  • Multi-criteria decision making
  • Delphi
  • ANP
  • AHP
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