Iran-Water Resources Research

Iran-Water Resources Research

Assessment of Changes in Water Resources of the Upper Aras Transboundary Basin Under the Influence of Increasing Cultivated Area, Using the SWAT Model and Global Climate Databases

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Ph.D. student in Civil Engineering, Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Semnan, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Semnan, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Semnan, Iran.
5 Visiting Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
6 Head of the Northwest Border Rivers Group, Bureau of Transboundary Rivers and Shared Water Resources, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
The Upper Aras transboundary Basin, shared between Turkey and Armenia, has undergone significant agricultural development in recent decades, primarily in Turkey under the DAP project. This development has reduced water outflow from the basin, negatively affecting downstream countries. Due to the limited access to ground-based data, this study investigated these changes in water resources using CFSR and CRU global climate data, Landsat satellite imagery, and the SWAT model, as well as extensive review of the available regional reports. Results indicated that over the past 15 years, the basin has experienced increased temperatures and a slight rise in average rainfall. Also, it was revealed that the area of irrigated croplands has increased from 140,000 hectares in 1983–2008 to 230,000 hectares in 2009–2018. These changes were applied to the calibrated SWAT model in three scenarios. Among them, the results of one of the development scenarios defined as the expansion of the current cropland area, showed a decrease in the annual runoff volume of Upper Aras River from 2605 to 2155 MCM/year, representing an 18% reduction in the annual flows. Notably, the largest drop in monthly flows happened in May which was 26%. Furthermore, average agricultural water consumption in Turkey's Erzurum and Kars provinces were estimated at 494 mm/ha and 458 mm/ha, respectively, highlighting the impact of agricultural expansion under the DAP project on water resources.
Keywords

Subjects


Abbaspour KC (2007) User Manual for SWAT-CUP. SWAT calibration and uncertainty analysis programs. Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, Dübendorf, Switzerland, 95 p.
Akhtar M, Ahmad N, and Booij M J (2009) Use of regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region. Hydrology and Earth System Science 13(7):1075-1089
Arnold J G, Srinivasan R, Muttiah R S, and Williams J R (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34(1): 73-89
Auerbach DA, Easton ZM, Walter MT, Flecker AS, Fuka DR (2016) Evaluating weather observations and the climate forecast system reanalysis as inputs for hydrologic modelling in the tropics. Hydrological Processes 30(19):3466-3477
Bitew MM, Gebremichael M (2011) Assessment of satellite rainfall products for streamflow simulation in medium watersheds of the Ethiopian highlands. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15(4):1147–1155
Dile YT, Srinivasan R (2014) Evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic prediction in data-scarce watersheds: an application in the Blue Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 50(5):1226-1241
Fadil A, Rhinane H, Kaoukaya A, Kharchaf Y, Alami Bachir O (2011) Hydrologic Modeling of the Bouregreg Watershed (Morocco) Using GIS and SWAT Model. Journal of Geographic Information System. 3:279-289
Fuka DR, Walter MT, MacAlister C, Degaetano AT, Steenhuis TS, Easton ZM (2014) Using the climate forecast system reanalysis as weather input data for watershed models. Hydrological Processes 28(2230): 5613-5623
General Directorate of state Hydraulic Works (Dsi) (2018). 
Hajihoseini H R, Hajihoseini M R, Morid S, Delavar M, and Booij M J (2016) Hydrological assessment of the 1973 treaty on the transboundary Helmand River, using the SWAT model and a global climate database. Water Resource Management 30(13):4681-4694
Hajihoseini M R, Hajihoseini H R, Morid S, Delavar M, and Booij M J (2020) Impacts of land use changes and climate variability on transboundary Hirmand River using SWAT. Journal of Water and Climate Change 11(4):1695-1711
Hajihoseini M, Morid S, Emamgholizadeh S, Amirahmadian B, Mahjoobi E, and Gholami H (2023) Conflict and cooperation in Aras International Rivers Basin: Status, trend, and future. Sustainable Water Resources Management 9(1)
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, and Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 datasets. Climatology 34(3):623–642
Hundecha Y, and Bárdossy A (2004) Modeling of the effect of land use changes on the runoff generation of a river basin through parameter regionalization of a watershed model. Journal of Hydrology 292(1–4):281-295
Karaoğlu M (2014) Agricultural meteorological properties of Aras Basin in Turkey .
Kars Hakimiyet (2020) Karakurt Barajı ve HES Tesisi’nin geçici kabulü yapıldı. (In Turkey ). https://www.karshakimiyet.com/karakurt-baraji-ve-hes-tesisinin-gecici-kabulu-yapildi-8356h.html
Kuyumjian N (2021) Dam building on the Kura-Aras and water tensions in the Caucasus.  
Marhaento H, Booij M J, and Hoekstra A Y (2017) Attribution of changes in stream flow to land use change and climate change in a mesoscale tropical catchment in Java, Indonesia. Journal of Hydrology Research, 48(4):1143–1155
Matthews M (2013) Reducing transboundary degradation in the Kura-Aras River basin. Desk study (a), Hydrology (b), Climate change (c), Water quality (d) UNDP/ GEF projects
Mirumachi N (2015) Transboundary water politics in the developing world. Routledge, New York. ISBN 9780415812962
Monteiro J, Gücker B, and Srinivasan R (2014) Comparison between Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) weather data and data from meteorological stations in Brazil to evaluate the suitability of CFSR data for SWAT. Conference: International SWAT Conference 2014
MÜDÜR G (2022) Aras Basin drought management plan report. Su PEK Project, Ankara
Neitsch S L, Arnold J G, Kiniry J R, & Williams J R (2005) Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation.
Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Srenivasan R, Williams JR (2011) Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation. Texas Water Resources Institute Technical Report, No 406, 647p.
Nouri M (2021) Effects of climatic and human factors on reducing Aras River flow using remote sensing (Case study: Upstream catchment of Aras dam). M. S. Thesis, Tarbiat Modares University of Tehran. (In Persian)
Rossi CG, Srinivasan R, Jirayoot K, Le Duc T, Souvannabouth P, Binh N. and Gassman PW (2009) Hydrologic evaluation of the lower Mekong River Basin with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. International Agricultural Engineering Journal 18(1)
Schuol J, Abbaspour K C (2006) Using monthly weather statistics to generate daily data in a SWAT model application to West Africa. Ecological Modelling 201(3-4):301-311
STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT in Turkey, Igdir Region, Irrigation project  (1983) World Bank Group.
TRCOLD (2014) Dams of Turkey report. International Commission on Large Dams Turkish National Committee
Vu MT, Raghavan SV, Liong SY (2012) SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff–a Vietnam river basin study. Journal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16(8):2801-2811
Williams L, Zazanashvili N, Sanadiradze G, Kandaurov A (2006) An eco-regional conversation plan for the Caucasus, 2nd edn. WWF Caucasus Program Office, ISBN: 99940-58-55-X
Yontar B (2009) Determination of diffuse pollution sources in Aras basin and Management recommendation. Istanbul Technical University, Institute of Science, 501071704 (In Turkish)
Yu W, Cestti RE, Lee JY (2015) Toward integrated water resources management in Armenia. World Bank Group
 
 
 
 
 

  • Receive Date 11 December 2024
  • Revise Date 23 January 2025
  • Accept Date 25 January 2025