ارزیابی و تحلیل دبی اوج با دوره بازگشت‌های مختلف برای رودخانه بشار با استفاده از مدل HEC-HMS

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران.

چکیده

سیلاب از جمله حوادث طبیعی مهم است که موجب تلفات انسانی و مالی زیادی می‌شود و ارزیابی سیلاب نیازمند محاسبه دبی اوج است. این مطالعه به ارزیابی دبی اوج رودخانه بشار ناشی از بارش با دوره بازگشت‌های مختلف می‌پردازد. نقشه‌ زمین‌شناسی در ArcGIS و نقشه کاربری اراضی در ENVI تهیه و بر اساس آن نقشه شماره منحنی آماده شد. 53/46 درصد از مساحت منطقه در گروه هیدرولوژیکی A و 30/75 درصد در گروه هیدرولوژیکی D قرار می‌گیرند. توزیع برتر برای هر ایستگاه با استفاده از آزمون کای اسکوئر تعیین و بارش برای دوره بازگشت‌های مختلف محاسبه شد. با تقسیم منطقه به 9 زیرحوضه و محاسبه پارامترهای موردنیاز برای هر زیرحوضه، مدل ساخته شد. واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی به ترتیب با سه و دو رویداد سیل انجام شد و میانگین شاخص‌های RMSE، NS و PTVE به ترتیب برابر 0/53، 0/67 و 10/89 در واسنجی و 0/55، 0/68 و 8/21 در اعتبارسنجی بدست آمد. خطاهای پایین، قابلیت اعتماد مدل شبیه‌سازی‌شده را نشان داد. برای دوره بازگشت‌های مختلف بارش و تیپ IA الگوی SCS، دبی‌های اوج محاسبه شد. مقایسه دبی اوج خروجی مدل HEC-HMS و روش آماری نشان داد که کم‌ترین اختلاف دبی دو روش مربوط به دوره بازگشت 50 سال بوده و برای دوره‌های بازگشت کوچکتر و بزرگتر از 50 سال، دبی اوج محاسبه شده با HEC-HMS به ترتیب کمتر و بیشتر از دبی اوج محاسبه شده به روش آماری است. بدین ترتیب، مدل HEC-HMS می­تواند با دقت خوبی دبی اوج سیلاب را برای حوضه­ بشار برآورد نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and Analysis of Peak Discharge with Different Return Periods for Beshar River Using HEC-HMS Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tahereh Kazemi 1
  • Mehdi Fazeli 2
  • Mohsen Farzin 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Civil Engineering, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Jungle, Range and Watershed Management, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Flood is one of the most important natural disaster that cause human and financial damages and its evaluation needs peak discharge. This study evaluates Beshar River runoff peak discharge due to precipitation with different return periods. The geological and land use maps were provided in ArcGIS and ENVI, based on which the CN map was prepared. Respectively, 53.46 % and 30.75 % of the study area are in A and D hydrologic groups. The best probability distribution for each station was determined using Chi-square test, thereafter, precipitation with different return periods was calculated. After dividing the area into 9 sub-basins and calculating the required parameters for each, the model was created. Three and two flood events were respectively used for calibration and validation and the average values of RMSE and NS indexes were obtained as 0.53 and 0.67 for calibration and 0.55 and 0.68 for validation. The low values of errors indicated the reliability of the simulated model. The peak discharge of each return period was calculated employing type IA of SCS model. Comparing the peak discharges obtained from HEC-HMS and statistical method at the basin outlet showed that the least difference between these two methods was related to the 50-year return period and for the return periods below and above 50 years, the HEC-HMS discharges were correspondingly less and greater than the statistically calculated peak discharges. Consequently, the HEC-HMS model can accurately calculate the flood peak discharge for Beshar basin.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall-Runoff model
  • flood
  • SCS model
  • Beshar River
  • HEC-HMS model
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