ارزیابی آثار بالقوه خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی بر وضعیت کشاورزی، بازده درآمدی و مصارف آبی کشاورزان استان تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی/ دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار/ اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد/ علوم کشاورزی (بیوتکنولوژی) دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی پدیده‌ای است که در اثر کاهش عرضه منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی رخ می‌دهد و به دلیل وابستگی بخش کشاورزی به ذخیره رطوبتی خاک، قبل از هر چیز این بخش را تحت تأثیر خود قرار می‌دهد. بنابراین، تحلیل اثرات این پدیده برای مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی بهتر منابع آب موجود در بخش کشاورزی حائز اهمیت است. در این مطالعه برای تحلیل اقتصادی اثرات بالقوه خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی ناشی از کاهش عرضه منابع آب بر وضعیت کشاورزی، بازده درآمدی و مصارف آبی کشاورزان استان تهران از الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت چند دوره‌ای (MP-PMP) و اطلاعات آماری مربوط به دوره پنج‌ساله 1397-1392 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که الگوی فعلی کشت در استان تهران بهینه نیست و با رخداد خشکسالی، تمایل کشاورزان برای توسعه سطح زیرکشت محصولات پرآب هندوانه و آفتابگردان کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که در شرایط رخداد خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی حدود 13/9 درصد تقاضای آب بخش کشاورزی استان تهران بدون پاسخ مانده و تأمین نخواهد شد که این امر موجبات تغییر الگوی کشت در منطقه را فراهم می‌کند. کاهش 28/7 درصدی بازده درآمدی کشاورزان و افزایش 2/38 درصدی ارزش اقتصادی آب آبیاری نسبت به دوره مبنا از دیگر پیامدهای وقوع خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی در استان تهران است. به طور کلی، نتایج گویای آن است که با وقوع خشکسالی الگوی کشت زراعی به نفع محصولات با نیاز آبی پایین‌تر و سود بالاتر تغییر می‌کند، ولی در مورد محصولات گوجه‌فرنگی و ذرت دانه‌ای علی‌رغم نیاز آبی بالا به دلیل وجود کشاورزی تلفیقی در منطقه، کاهش سطح زیرکشت کمتری مشاهده می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Potential Effects of Hydrological Drought on Agricultural Situation, Farmers’ Revenue and Water Consumptions in Tehran Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abozar Parhizkari 1
  • Qolamreza Yavari 2
  • Abolfazl Mahmodi 2
  • Qolamreza Bakhshi khaniki 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor of Agricultural Science (Biotechnology) Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Hydrological drought is a phenomenon that occurs due to the reduction of surface water and groundwater resources supply. Because of the dependence of the agricultural sector to soil moisture storage, it primarily affects this sector. Therefore, the analysis of the effects of this phenomenon is important for the better management and planning of water resources available in the agricultural sector. Theeffects of hydrological drought arising from reducing the supply of water resources on agricultural situation, water consumptions and farmers' gross profit in Tehran province were evaluated. For this purpose from Multi Period Positive Mathematical Programming and statistical information related to period 2013-2018 wereused. The results showed that the current cropping pattern in Tehran province is not optimal and with occurrence of hydrological drought, farmers’ tend decreases for the water-full crops such as watermelon, tomato and sunflower. In addition, the results showed that in the hydrological drought conditions, about 9.13 percent of agricultural water demand in Tehran province will not provided. This will change the pattern of cultivation inthe region. Reduction in the farmers' gross margin amunt 7.28 percent and increase in the economic value of irrigation water amunt 38.2 percent compared to the base period are other consequences the occurrence of hydrological drought in Tehran province. Overall, the results indicate that with the occurrence of drought, the cropping pattern toward products with lower water requirements and higher profits, but for tomato and corn products (despite the high water requirement) due to integrated farming in region reducing acreage is less visible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrological Drought
  • Agricultural Water Supply
  • Income Status
  • Multi-Period PMP Model
  • Tehran
Alipour H, Cheharsoghi A, Qarib A (2013) Investigation of the effects of drought on socio-economic status of farmers, Case study: Wheat farmers in Nehbandan. Watershed Management Research (Construction and Research) 26(2):113-125 (In Persian)
Angelidis P, Maris F, Kotsovinos N, Hrissanthou V (2012) Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions. Journal of Water Resources Management 26(9):2453-2473
Araghinejad S (2011) An approach for probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. Water Resources Management 25(1):191-200
Barikani A, Ahmadian M, Khalilian S (2008) Sustainable optimal exploitation of groundwater resources in agriculture: A case study of Qazvin plain agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 25(2):253-262 (In Persian)
Dehghanizade M, Bakhtiari S, Daei Karimzadeh S (2020) The role of water resources constraints on production and employment at different economic sectors: A case study of the Yazd province. Iran-Water Resources Research 16(1):426-433 (In Persian)
Eslamian S, Kiaheyrati H (2008) The role of climate and land diversity in desertification. First National Conference on Water Pollution Measurement and Drought Management, University of Tehran, November 2008 (In Persian)
Funk C, Budd M E (2009) Phenologically tuned MODIS NDVI-based production nomaly estimates for Zimbabwe. Remote Sensing of Environment, NO: 113
Graveline N (2016) Economic calibrated models for water allocation in agricultural production: A review. Environmental Modelling and Software 81:12-25
Helming J, Peerlings J (2014) Economic and environmental effects of a flat rate for Dutch agriculture. NJAS- Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 68:53-60
Howitt R E (1995) Positive mathematical programming. American Journal of Agricultural Economic 77:329-342
Howitt R E, Medellin-Azuara J, MacEwan D, Lund J R (2012) Calibrating disaggregate economic models of agricultural production and water management. Environmental Modeling & Software 38:244-258
Khalili N, Rezaee Pazhand H, Derakhshan H, Davary K (2018) Developing a framework for agricultural drought risk assessment for rainfed wheat. Iran-Water Resources Research 14(4):59-70 (In Persian)
Khosravi M, Niagharaee S, Javedani N, Javanmard S, Khazanedari L (2001) Investigation of drought assessment indices and feasibility of applying Palmer drought severity indices in Iran. International Conference on Drought Solutions, Kerman Bahonar Shahid University
Medellan-Azuara J, Harou J J, Howitt R E (2011) Predicting farmer responses to water pricing, rationing and subsidies assuming profit maximizing investment in irrigation technology. Science of the Agricultural Water Management 108:73-82
Mohammadi M, Bordi Sheykh M, Ahmadi H (2010) Drought intensity zoning in Sistan and Baluchestan province with SPI index using GIS. Geomatics Conference , Iran Mapping Organization (In Persian)
Mohammadi S, Naseri F, Nazaripour H (2018) Investigation of temporal variations and the effect of meteorological drought on groundwater resources of Kerman plain using standard precipitation indices and groundwater resources. Journal of Ecohydrology 5(1):11-22 (In Persian)
Montaseri M, Norjo A, Behmanesh J, Akbari M (2018) Wetland and meteorological drought in the southern basins of Lake Urmia (Case study: Zarinehroud and Siminroud catchment basins). Iranian Journal of Ecohydrology 5(1):189-202 (In Persian)
Myronidis D, Stathis D, Ioannou K, Fotakis D (2012) An integration of statistics temporal methods to track the effect of drought in a shallow mediterranean lake. Water Resources Management 26(15):4587-4605
Parhizkari A (2013) Determination economic value of irrigation water and farmer’s response to price and non-price policies in Qazvin province. The thesis submitted for the degree of M.Sc. in the Field of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Iran (In Persian)
Parhizkari A (2018) Economic analysis of the impacts of alamut farmers' participation on rice selection project. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 34(9):57-92 (In Persian)
Parhizkari A, Khodadadi Hoseyni M, Taghizade Ranjbari H, Mahmoodi A (2016) Determination of appropriate economic strategy for protection of groundwater resources in Qazvin plain. Journal of Rural Development Strategies 4(2):477-496 (In Persian)
Parhizkari A, Mahmoodi A, Shokat fadaee M (2017) Assessing the impacts of climate change on available water resources and crop production in the Shahroud Watershed. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 33(9):23-50 (In Persian)
Petsakos A, Rozakis S (2015) Calibration of agricultural risk programming models. European Journal of Operational Research 242(1):536-545
Qureshi M E, Mobin-ud-Din A, Stuart M W, Mac K (2014) A multi-period positive mathematical programming approach for assessing economic impact of drought in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Economic Modelling 39(1):293-304
Rezaee A, Mortazavi A, Peykani Q (2016) Analysis of the economic situation of farmers in east of Zayandehrood river basin under drought conditions. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research 47(2):335-342 (In Persian)
Shakiba A, Mirbagheri B, Kheyri A (2010) Drought and its impact on groundwater resources in eastern Kermanshah province using SPI index. Geographical Society of Iran 25(8):83-96 (In Persian)
Talebi A, Pourmohammadi S, Moradi N (2014) Investigating the effects of drought on water quality in arid regions, case study: Behbad plain of Yazd province. International Journal of Water Resources and Development 2(3):112-124 (In Persian)
Tehran Meteorological Organization (2017) Summary of weather in Tehran Province. Pages 13-8 (In Persian)
Vicente-Serrano SM, Cuadrat-Prats J M, Romo A (2006) Early prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time-scales and remote sensing data: application in the Ebro valley (North-East Spain). International Journal of Remotr Sensing 27(3):43-59
Water and Sustainable Consulting Engineers Company (2017) The effect of drought on groundwater resources in Shahrekord plain. Drought summit, Chahar Mahal Bakhtiari (In Persian)
WenJiang Z, QiFeng L, ZhiQiang G, Jian P (2008) Response of remotely sensed ormalized difference water deviation Index to the 2006 drought of eastern Sichuan Basin. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences 51(5):109-122
Zhiyong W, Yun M, Xiaoyan L, Guihua L, Qingxia L, Huating X (2016) Exploring spatiotemporal relationships among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in Southwest China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 30(3):1033-1044