مقایسه عملکرد روش هیبرید دینامیکی- آماری با روش دینامیکی برای ریزمقیاس نمایی داده‌های بارش CMIP5

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدگان ابوریحان تهران، پاکدشت، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدگان ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران، پاکدشت، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه آب، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، ایران.

چکیده

اطلاع از تغییرات افت و خیز بارش در سال‌های پیش‌رو در یک حوضه آبریز یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های مطالعات هیدرولوژیکی است. تغییرات این پارامتر به‌وسیله مدل‌های گردش کلی بررسی می‌شود. نسخه‌های گوناگونی از این مدل‌ها منتشر شده است که یکی از نسخه‌های آن مدل‌های سری CMIP5 است که دارای حدوداً 40 مدل دینامیکی در دسترس است. در این مطالعه از مدل اقلیمی CCSM4 استفاده شده است. خروجی داده‌های این مدل 1×1 درجه می‌باشد که جهت ریزمقیاس کردن داده‌های بارش این مدل، از پیوند (Hybrid) دو روش دینامیکی (WRF1) و آماری استفاده شده است. منطقه موردمطالعه، حوضه آبریز پلدختر از زیر حوضه‌های کرخه می‌باشد و از داده‌های بارش بین سال‌های 2005-1996 استفاده شده است. ابتدا داده‌های بارش توسط مدل WRF از دامنه 1×1 درجه به 9×9 کیلومتر ریزمقیاس شد و سپس این داده‌ها توسط دو روش الف) هیبرید و ب) WRF به طور جداگانه به دامنه 3×3 کیلومتر تبدیل گردید. نتایج مشخص کرد که ریزمقیاس‌نمایی هیبرید (که هزینه زمانی و محاسباتی کمتری نسبت به روش WRF دارد) افت و خیزهای بارش را بهتر از روش WRF در مقیاس 3×3 کیلومتر برآورد کرده است. در کل ریزمقیاس‌نمایی بارش در این حوضه با استفاده از هر دو روش با کم برآوردی همراه است و می‌بایست با یک روش تصحیح خطا تصحیح گردد. نهایتاً با کاهش هزینه‌‎های ریزمقیاس‌نمایی دینامیکی مدل‌های اقلیمی ب‌وسیله روش هیبرید، یافته­‌های این تحقیق می‌تواند کمک شایانی به تصمیم‌گیری در خصوص مدیریت منابع آب در سال‌های تر و خشک در دهه‌های آینده نماید.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparing the Performance of the Dynamic-Statistical Hybrid Method with the Dynamic Method for Downscaling of CMIP5 Precipitation Data

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Nekooamal Kermani 1
  • Alireza Massah Bavani 2
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
  • Mohammad Reza Mohammadpur 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate of Water Resources Engineering, Department of water Resource Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Pakdasht, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Pakdasht, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Atmospheric Science & Meteorogical Research Center, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

One of the most important challenges of hydrological studies is the projection of precipitation variability in a basin in future periods. Atmospheric Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) can project this variability but in large-scale regions. Various versions of these models have been released, one of which is the CMIP5 series with about 40 dynamic models. In this study, the CCSM4 climate model has been used. The data output of this model is in 1 × 1 (Latitude× longitude) degree. To downscale the precipitation data of this model, the hybrid of two dynamic (WRF1) and statistical methods has been proposed. The study area is the Poldokhtar subbasin in the ​​Karkheh basin and rainfall data between 1996-2005 have been used. First, the precipitation data were downscaled by the WRF model from the range of 1 × 1 degree to 9 × 9 km, and then these data were converted to the range of 3 × 3 km separately by two methods: a) hybrid and b) WRF. The results showed that the dynamic downscaling by the WRF model in the range of 9 × 9 km quite shows the precipitation fluctuations during the statistical period. In the 3 × 3 km range, the hybrid method performed better than the WRF method. Finally the results showed that downscaling of precipitation in this basin using both methods is associated with underestimation and should be accompanied by an bias correction method. As a result, by reducing the time and cost of dynamical downscaling of climate models, the findings of this paper can be of great help in making decisions about water resources management in the wet and dry years of the coming decades of a basin.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CMIP5
  • Hybrid Downscaling
  • WRF
  • Poldokhtar
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