ارزیابی حکمرانی ریسک سیل در استان گلستان در رویدادهای سیل سال 1398-1397

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، پژوهشکده مهندسی و مدیریت آب دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، گروه میان رشته‌ای فناوری آب، دانشکده علوم و فناوری‌های میان رشته‌ای، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

3 دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

چکیده

استان گلستان سالانه شاهد سیل‌های کوچک و بزرگ متنوعی است. بخصوص در مجموعه سیل‌های اواخر سال 1397 و اوایل سال 1398 خسارات گسترده­ای به سکنه و زیرساخت‌های این استان وارد شد. این مقاله به مسأله سیل استان گلستان از منظر حکمرانی نگاه می‌کند و درصدد پاسخگویی به این سؤال است که با انجام چه اقدامات و برنامه‌هایی می‌توان تلفات جانی و خسارات مالی ناشی از سیل را در آن کاهش داد. روش مورد استفاده در تحقیق حاضر مبتنی بر تحلیل محتوای کیفی بر اساس چهار مؤلفه تاب‌آوری، کارایی، اثربخشی و مشروعیت و معیارهای مرتبط با هر یک از مؤلفه‌ها است. وضعیت حکمرانی ریسک سیل در استان گلستان در سیل‌های 1398-1397 با استفاده از چهار مؤلفه مورد اشاره در سطح متوسط (امتیاز 2/4 از 5) ارزیابی شد. به‌طوری‌که سه مؤلفه تاب‌آوری، اثربخشی و مشروعیت در سطح متوسط (امتیاز 3 از 5) و صرفاً مؤلفه کارایی در سطح نسبتاً بد (امتیاز 1/3 از 5) ارزیابی گردید. معیارهای پاسخگویی و عدالت رویه‌ای، دسترسی به اطلاعات و شفافیت و همچنین میزان تلفات جانی عملکرد نسبتاً خوبی (امتیاز 4 از 5) داشتند. در حالی که معیارهای فناوری، کارایی مالی و خسارات وارده عملکرد نسبتاً نامناسبی (امتیاز 1 از 5) را کسب کردند. بر طبق یافته­‌های تحقیق حاضر برای ارتقای وضعیت حکمرانی ریسک سیل استان گلستان باید به ترتیب بر مؤلفه کارایی، اثربخشی، تاب‌آوری و مشروعیت توجه بیشتری مبذول شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Flood Risk Governance in the 2019 Flood Events in Golestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Shakeri Rostami 1
  • Ali Bagheri 2
  • Amir Sadoddin 3
1 Master Graduate of Water Resources Management and Planning, Department of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran, Research Institute for Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran, Department of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan.
چکیده [English]

Each year, Golestan Province faces damaging floods. Particularly, the province was severely impacted by the 2019 flood events. Therefore, within the context of flood governance, this paper seeks answer to the question of what measures and programs can be adopted to reduce casualties and financial losses caused by floods in Golestan province. The method used is based on the qualitative content analysis considering four components including resilience, efficiency, effectiveness, and legitimacy and the criteria related to each of the components. Through assessing the four components, the overall status of the flood risk governance in the 2019 flood events is categorized as medium (2.4 from 5). The three components of resilience, effectiveness, and legitimacy were assessed as medium, while the component of efficiency was categorized as relatively inappropriate. The criteria of accountability and procedural justice, access to information and transparency, as well as the rate of casualties showed relatively good performance (4 of 5). While the criteria of technology, financial efficiency, and damages had relatively poor status (1 of 5). Based on the findings of this research, to improve the flood risk governance in Golestan Province the components of efficiency, effectiveness, resilience, and legitimacy need more attention, respectively.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flood Risk Management
  • Resilience
  • Legitimacy
  • Efficiency
  • Effectiveness
Agricultural Research and Training Center and Natural Resources of Golestan Province (2020) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–42 (In Persian)
Agriculture and Natural Resources Working Group (2020) Agriculture and natural resources working group, final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–374 (In Persian)
Alexander M, Priest S, and Mees HJ (2016a) A framework for evaluating flood risk governance. Environmental Science Policy 64(1):38–47
Alexander M, Priest S, and Mees M (2016b) A framework for evaluating flood risk governance. Environmental Science & Policy 64(1):38–47
Amini S, Azizian A, and Arasteh P (2021) Determining the appropriate temporal resolution of short and mid-terms of global precipitation forecasting systems over Iran. Iran-Water Resources Research, Iranian Water Resources Association 16(4):190–204 (In Persian)
Armed Forces Geographical Organization (2019) Significant actions of the Geographical Organization of the Armed Forces in the flood-hit areas of the country. 1–53 (In Persian)
Baitullahi A, Soodmand N, Mahdavi M, and Soleimani M (2019) Golestan flood-hazard working group report: Seismology engineering and risk section. Road, Housing and Urban Development Research Center 1–42 (In Persian)
Basij Organization of the Medical Society of the country (2020) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–5 (In Persian)
Ceddia MG, Christopoulos D, Hernandez Y, and Zepharovich E (2017) Assessing adaptive capacity through governance networks: The elaboration of the flood risk management plan in Austria. Environmental Science and Policy, Elsevier Ltd 77(1):140–146 (In Persian)
Crisis Management Organization (2019) Report describing the incident separately in each of the provinces and the actions of the relevant agencies and institutions in the 2019 flood. Deputy for Preparedness and Coping of the Crisis Management Organization 1–41 (In Persian)
Crisis Management Organization (2020) The report describes the incident separately in each of the provinces and the actions of the relevant agencies and institutions in the floods 2019. 1–47 (In Persian)
Crisis Management Working Group (2020) Crisis management working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–220 (In Persian)
Ek K, Goytia S, Pettersson M, and Spegel E (2016) Analysing and evaluating flood risk governance in Sweden: Adaptation to climate change? STAR-FLOOD Consortium
Environment Working Group (2020) Environment working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–376 (In Persian)
General Department of Environmental Protection of Golestan Province (2020a) Response of the general department of environmental protection of Golestan Province to the working group on river engineering and hydraulic structures of the special flood of the presidential flood. 1–8 (In Persian)
General Department of Environmental Protection of Golestan Province (2020b) Response of the general department of environmental protection of Golestan Province to the environmental working group of the presidential flood special committee. 1–9 (In Persian)
General Directorate of Roads and Urban Development Golestan Province (2020) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–63 (In Persian)
Golestan Meteorological Department (2020) Measures of the general meteorological department of Golestan Province in the 2019 flood. 1–46 (In Persian)
Golestan Province Crisis Management General Office (2019) Report on the documents requested by the special presidential board from the general directorate of crisis management of Golestan Province. 1–22 (In Persian)
Golestan Province Farhangian University (2019) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–65 (In Persian)
Golestan Red Crescent Society (2020) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–41 (In Persian)
Golestan Regional Water Authority (2020a) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–82 (In Persian)
Golestan Regional Water Authority (2020b) Report on the response of Golestan Regional Water Company to the questions of the special board of the national flood report. 1–3 (In Persian)
Golestan University (2020) Report on the actions of Golestan University regarding the 2019 flood in Golestan province. 1–54 (In Persian)
Gupta J, Termeer C, Klostermann J, Meijerink S, van den Brink M, Jong P, Nooteboom S, and Bergsma E (2010) The adaptive capacity wheel: A method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society. Environmental Science & Policy 13(6):459-471
Health, Relied and Rescue Working Group (2020) Health, relied and rescue working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–182
Hegger DLT, Driessen PPJ, Dieperink C, Wiering M, Raadgever GTT, and van Rijswick HFMW (2014) Assessing stability and dynamics in flood risk governance. Water Resources Management 28(12):4127–4142
Hegger DLT, Driessen PPJ, Wiering M, Van Rijswick HFMW, Kundzewicz ZW, Matczak P, Crabbé A, Raadgever GT, Bakker MHN, and Priest SJ (2016) Toward more flood resilience: Is a diversification of flood risk management strategies the way forward? Ecology Society 21(4):24–36
Infrastructures Working Group (2020) Infrastructures working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–588 (In Persian)
Iran Water Resources Management Company (2020a) Flood management report for 2019 according to the flood management regulations of the Ministry of Energy. National Flood Management Command and Support Headquarters 1–82 (In Persian)
Iran Water Resources Management Company (2020b) Golestan Province flood report in 2019. 1–22 (In Persian)
Iran Water Resources Management Company (2020c) List of intersection structures identified in three provinces of Khuzestan, Golestan, and Lorestan in flood 2020. 1–4 (In Persian)
Iran Water Resources Management Company (2020d) Report on the most important actions and programs of the Ministry of Energy in protecting the riverbed and the territory of the country. 1–46 (In Persian)
Iran Water Resources Management Company (2020e) Report on the most important measures taken in Golestan, Lorestan, Fars, and Chaharmahal, and Bakhtiari provinces in the river engineering department. 1–38 (In Persian)
Irannezhad M, Minaei M, Ahmadian S, and Chen D (2018) Impacts of changes in climate and land cover-land use on flood characteristics in Gorganrood Watershed (Northeastern Iran) during recent decades. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. Taylor & Francis 100(4):340–350 (In Persian)
Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation (2020a) Rehabilitation report of houses affected by floods in 2019. 1–62 (In Persian)
Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation (2020b) Flood analysis from the perspective of urban planning, architecture and cultural heritage in Lorestan, Golestan and Khuzestan Provinces. 1–7 (In Persian)
Jalili M and Fekri M (2020) Consequences of Golestan flood management initiatives. Center for Presidential Strategic Studies 1–109 (In Persian)
Larrue C, Hegger DLT, and Tremorin JB (2013) Researching flood risk governance in Europe: A framework and methodology for assessing flood risk governance. Global Environmental Change, STAR-FLOOD Consortium 1(3):1–105
Latif AA and Arshad NH (2014) A review of flood management governance framework in malaysia and selected countries. Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Information Technology and Multimedia, 178–183
Matczak P, Lewandowski J, Choryński A, Szwed M, and Kundzewicz ZW (2015) Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 369(1):195–199
Meteorology and Climatology Working Group (2020) Meteorology and climatology working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–396 (In Persian)
Ministry of Agriculture (2020) Technical analysis of agricultural infrastructure affected by the 2019 floods. 1–43 (In Persian)
Morrison A, Westbrook CJ, and Noble BF (2018) A review of the flood risk management governance and resilience literature. Journal of Flood Risk Management, Wiley Online Library 11(3):291–304
Natural Resources and Watershed Management General Directorate (2019) Performance of watershed management measures in flood management; Flood event 2019 in Golestan province. Organization of Forests, Rangelands and Watershed Management in Golestan Province 1–58 (In Persian)
Natural Resources and Watershed Management General Directorate (2020) Answers to the questions of the special committee of the national flood national report. 1–18 (In Persian)
OECD (2015) OECD principles on water governance. 1(1):1–20. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/cfe/ regional-policy/OECD-Principles-on-Water-Governance.pdf
Ozhan M, Bahremand A, Bardi S V, and Bayram k (2018) Prediction of floods extent with different return periods using 2-D hydraulic model, LISFLOOD-FP. Iran-Water Resources Research 13(4):190–195 (In Persian)
Parisooj P, Goharnejad H, and Moazami S (2018) Rainfall-runoff hydrologic simulation using adjusted satellite rainfall algorithms, a case study: Voshmgir Dam Basin, Golestan Province. Iran-Water Resources Research 14(3):140–159 (In Persian)
Plummer R, Baird J, Bullock R, Dzyundzyak A, Dupont D, Gerger Swartling Å, Johannessen Å, Huitema D, Lyth A, de Lourdes Melo Zurita M, and others (2018) Flood governance: A multiple country comparison of stakeholder perceptions and aspirations. Environmental Policy and Governance, Wiley Online Library 28(2):67–81
Raadgever T and Hegger D (2018) Flood risk management strategies and governance. Springer
Risk Management and Insurance Working Group (2020) Risk management and insurance working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–160
River and Hydraulic Structures Engineering Working Group (2020) River and hydraulic structures engineering working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–806 (In Persian)
Shih S-S, Kuo P-H, and Lai J-S (2019) A nonstructural flood prevention measure for mitigating urban inundation impacts along with river flooding effects. Journal of Environmental Management 251(1):109553
Social-Cultural and Media Working Group (2020) Social, cultural and media working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–704 (In Persian)
Teimouri M and Alvandi E (2021) Rainfall-runoff modeling using the ewater source in the Chel-Chay Watershed, the Province of Golestan. Watershed Management Researches Journal, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center 34(1):16–29 (In Persian)
Training and Human Resources Working Group (2020) Training and human resources working group final report in the national inquiry committee of 2019 Floods in Iran. 1–212 (In Persian)
Walters D (2006) Effectiveness and efficiency: The role of demand chain management. The International Journal of Logistics Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited 25(2):17-32
Wilson M, Wnuk K, Silvander J, and Gorschek T (2018) A literature review on the effectiveness and efficiency of business modeling. E-Informatica Software Engineering Journal 12(1):25-47
Wood M, Kovacs D, Bostrom A, Bridges T, and Linkov I (2012) Flood risk management: US Army Corps of Engineers and layperson perceptions. journal Risk Analysis 32(8):1349–1368
World Bank (1992) Governance and development. 1(1):1–20, Available at: http://documents. worldbank.org/curated/en/604951468739447676/Governance-and-development