تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

پیش‌نگری تغییرات تبخیر- تعرق واقعی بر اساس مدل بیلان آب تورنت وایت و چارچوب بادیکو در زیرحوضه‌های غرب حوضه دریاچه ارومیه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.
چکیده
هدف از مطالعه حاضر، پیش­نگری اثرات تغییر اقلیم (تحت سناریوی RCP8.5) بر تبخیر-تعرق واقعی (ET) در چهار زیرحوضه نازلوچای، روضه‎‌چای، شهرچای و باراندوزچای در غرب حوضه دریاچه ارومیه، بر اساس داده­‌های CORDEX (بروندادهای بارش و دمای دو مدل گردش عمومی جو NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M و ICHEC-EC-EARTH ریزمقیاس­‌نمایی ­شده به وسیله مدل اقلیم منطقه‌­ای RCA4) است. داده­‌های تاریخی و آینده دما و بارش CORDEX پس از مقایسه با داده‌­های مشاهداتی، به روش مقیاس­‌گذاری خطی تصحیح اریبی شدند و به عنوان ورودی مدل بیلان آب تورنت وایت استفاده شدند. سپس، تغییرات تبخیر-تعرق واقعی در سه دوره آینده نزدیک (2040-2011)، میانی (2070-2041) و دور (2100-2071) نسبت به دوره تاریخی (2005-1976) به تفکیک تغییرات ناشی از رژیم و تغییرات ناشی از افراز با استفاده از روش بادیکو بررسی شدند. نتایج نشان داد که در مقیاس سالانه، تغییرات تبخیر-تعرق واقعی در دو زیرحوضه نازلوچای (mm 1- تا 5/1) و روضه­چای (mm 3/8- تا 10) در هیچ یک از دوره­‌های آینده معنی‌­دار نیستند و در زیرحوضه‌­های شهرچای (mm 2/4 تا 15/3) و باراندوزچای (mm 1/2 تا 8/8) افزایش معنی­‌دار تبخیر-تعرق واقعی محدود به دوره‌­های آینده میانی یا دور است. در همه زیرحوضه­‌ها تغییرات ناشی از رژیم شدیدتر از تغییرات ناشی از افراز است و تغییرات ناشی از رژیم در همه زیرحوضه‌­ها اغلب مثبت و تغییرات ناشی از افراز اغلب منفی است. اما تغییرات کل، در زیرحوضه‌­های مختلف و دوره‌­های آینده مختلف، متفاوت است. به طور کلی زمانی که تغییرات ناشی از رژیم بیش از دو برابر تغییرات ناشی از افراز باشد، تغییرات کل تبخیر-تعرق واقعی معنی‌­دار هستند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Projection of Actual Evapotranspiration Changes in the Western Sub-basins of the Lake Urmia Basin Based on Thornthwaite Water Balance Model and Budyko Framework

نویسندگان English

Fatemeh Nasiri 1
Kamran Zeinalzadeh 2
Somayeh Hejabi 2
1 M.Sc. Student of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
چکیده English

The present study aimed to project the effects of climate change (under RCP8.5 scenario) on actual evapotranspiration (ET) in sub-basins of Nazlou Chay, Rozeh Chay, Shahr Chay, and Barandouz Chay in the west of the Lake Urmia basin, based on CORDEX data; precipitation and the temperature outputs of the two atmospheric general circulation models NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M and ICHEC-EC-EARTH downscaled by RCA4 model. After comparing with observational data, historical and future CORDEX temperature and precipitation data were bias-corrected by linear scaling method and used as input for the Thornthwaite water balance model. Then, the changes of ET in the three periods of near (2011-2040), middle (2041-2070), and far future (2071-2100) compared to the historical period (1976-2005) were evaluated using the Budyko method by separating the shifts caused by the regime and partitioning. The results showed that, on an annual scale, the changes in ET in Nazlou Chay (-1–5.1 mm) and Rozeh Chay (-3.8–10 mm) sub-basins are not significant in any of the future periods. In Shahr Chay (2.4–15.3 mm) and Barandouz Chay (1.2–8.8 mm) sub-basins the significant increase in ET is limited to the middle or far future periods. In all sub-basins, the regime shifts are more severe than the partitioning shifts. Also, in all sub-basins the regime shifts are often positive and the partitioning shifts are often negative. However, the total shifts are different for different sub-basins and different future periods. In general, when the regime shifts are more than twice the partitioning shifts, the total changes in ET are significant.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Water Balance
Climate Change
Global Climatic Data
Fu’s Equation
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  • تاریخ دریافت 02 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 01 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 03 بهمن 1403