تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تخمین خسارات اقتصادی سیلاب با تلفیق مدل‎سازی هیدرومتئورولوژیکی و شبیه سازی هیدرولیکی- رویکردی نوین برای مدیریت و کاهش خسارات سیل (مطالعه موردی: حوضه پلدختر)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دکتری مهندسی منابع آب
2 عضو هیئت علمی گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی قزوین
3 موسسه تحقیقات آب تهران
چکیده
در سال­های اخیر افزایش فراوانی سیلاب و خسارات ناشی از آن، نیاز فوری به بهبود در مدیریت ریسک سیلاب را پررنگ نموده است تا به واسطه آن مناطق مستعد وقوع سیل مشخص و میزان خسارت سیلاب در آن­ها تعیین شود. با توجه به نقش مهم توابع خسارت در مطالعات ارزیابی خسارت سیلاب، در این پژوهش که بطور موردی بر روی حوضه آبخیز پلدختر به انجام رسیده است؛ ضمن توسعه مدل منطقه­ای برای تخمین خسارت سیلاب در مناطق مسکونی، پتانسیل کاربرد خروجی مدل عددی هواشناسی WRF در تلفیق با مدل‌های HEC-HMS و HEC-RAS برای تخمین مؤلفه‌های هیدرولوژیکی، هیدرولیکی و خسارت سیلاب مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. در این پژوهش، از مدل‌های عددی هواشناسی WRF برای پیش‌بینی بارش، مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS برای شبیه‌سازی رواناب و مدل هیدرولیکی دوبعدی HEC-RAS برای شبیه‌سازی پهنه سیلاب استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل WRF با خطایی در حدود 1/47 درصد در تخمین دبی اوج سیلاب، 2/98 درصد در شبیه‌سازی عمق سیلاب و 1/93 درصد در شبیه‌سازی عرض سطح آب از عملکرد مناسبی برای کاربرد با هدف مدلسازی هیدرولوژیکی و هیدرولیکی برخوردار است. همچنین، مدل خسارت توسعه‌یافته با خطای نسبی کمتر از ۱۰ درصد، قابلیت خوبی در تخمین خسارات سیلاب در مناطق مسکونی نشان داد. علاوه ‌بر این، بررسی روش‌های تبدیل خسارات نسبی به ریالی حاکی از آن است که افزایش دقت مکانی در محاسبه متراژ ساختمان‌ها و استفاده از ضریب هزینه بازسازی/نوسازی برای سیلاب‌های با عمق کم، منجر به تخمین دقیق‌تری از خسارات می‌شود. بنابراین، تلفیق این مدل‌ها و مفاهیم با یکدیگر و ارائه آن‌ها در یک بستر آنلاین، می‌تواند به‌عنوان یک سامانه پیش‌بینی جامع و کاربردی در سطح ملی مورد توجه محققین و مدیران قرار گیرد و نقش مؤثری در مدیریت و کاهش خسارات سیلاب ایفا نماید.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Estimating Flood Economic Damages through Integrated Hydro-Meteorological Modeling and Hydraulic Simulation: A Novel Approach for Flood Management and Damage Reduction (Case Study: Poldokhtar Basin)

نویسندگان English

Sakineh Koohi 1
Asghar Azizian 2
Saeid Najafi 3
1 Phd in Water Resources Engineering
2 Assistant Professor in Water Engineering Dept./ Imam Khomeini International University
3 Ministry of Energy, Water Research Institute (WRI)
چکیده English

In recent years, the growing frequency of flood events and their associated damages has underscored the critical need to enhance flood risk management strategies, particularly in identifying flood-prone areas and assessing the extent of damage they incur. Recognizing the pivotal role of depth-damage functions in flood damage evaluation, this study focuses on Poldokhtar basin as a case study. It develops a regional model for estimating flood damage in residential areas while evaluating the potential of utilizing outputs from the WRF numerical weather model combined with HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models to estimate hydrological, hydraulic, and damage components of flood. The study employs the WRF model for precipitation prediction, the HEC-HMS hydrological model for flood simulation, and the two-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model for flood inundation simulation. The findings demonstrated that the WRF model combined with HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models performs effectively in hydrological and hydraulic modeling, with minimal errors: approximately 1.47% in estimating peak flood discharge, 2.98% in simulating flood depth, and 1.93% in WSE. Additionally, the developed damage model exhibited strong accuracy, with a relative error of less than 10% in estimating flood damages in residential areas. The study also highlighted that improving spatial accuracy in calculating building areas and applying reconstruction/renovation cost coefficients for shallow floods resulted in more precise damage estimates. Integrating these models and methodologies into an online platform could serve as a comprehensive and practical forecasting system, offering significant value to researchers and policymakers at the national level. Such a system would play a crucial role in mitigating and managing flood-related damages.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Flood Damage, Integrated Meteorological-Hydrological Modeling, Depth-Damage Functions, Reconstruction/Renovation Cost Factor, Economic Flood Analysis
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