تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تخصیص منابع آب فرامرزی براساس قاعده ورشکستگی تناسب بهینه؛ مطالعه موردی: حوضه فرامرزی سیروان-دیاله

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، دانشکده محیطزیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیطزیست، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
یکی از چالش‌‎های پیش رو در برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت سیستم‌های منابع آب، تخصیص آب در شرایط کمبود است، زمانی که مقدار منابع آب موجود برای تأمین کامل تقاضاها کافی نیست. در این شرایط، مسئله تخصیص منابع آبی را می‌توان با استفاده از قواعد ورشکستگی فرمول‎بندی و حل کرد. با این وجود، استفاده از قواعد ورشکستگی در مسأله تخصیص آب در سیستم‌های منابع آب پیچیده، مستلزم احتساب ناهمگنی مکانی و توزیع زمانی منابع آب در مقایسه با نیازها است. در این تحقیق، ضرایب ورشکستگی تناسب بهینه با استفاده از مدل بهینه‌سازی-شبیه‌سازی چندهدفه NSGAII-MODSIM برای حوضه سیروان-دیاله مشترک بین ایران و عراق، استخراج شده است. در این مدل، ناهمگنی زمانی و مکانی طرح‌های توسعه منابع آب در سیستم تصمیم-یار رایانه ای تخصیص منابع-مصارف MODSIM شبیهسازی شده است. توابع هدف در مدل بهینه‎ساز چندهدفه تخصیص نیز که در قالب الگوریتم تکاملی NSGAII فرمولبندی و حل شده است، بیشینهسازی مطلوبیت کشورها هستند. برای بررسی پایداری جواب‌ها، از شاخص کمترین انحراف از بهترین وضعیت تخصیص منابع آب برای کشورها استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‎دهد که در جواب پیشنهادی، کشور همسایه، عراق، باید 14 درصد از تقاضای آب کشاورزی خود را کاهش دهد. همچنین، در صورت احتساب اطمینان‌پذیری زمانی تأمین نیاز در توابع هدف، لازم است هر دو کشور مقدار تقاضاهای کشاورزی خود را به میزان بیشتری (ایران 9 درصد و عراق 62 درصد) کاهش دهند. نتایج همچنین نشان می‌دهند تأمین تقاضای بالای کشاورزی در عراق سبب ناپایداری اکولوژیکی در بخش عراقی حوضه می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Transboundary Water Resources Allocation Based on the Optimal Proportional Bankruptcy Rule: A Case Study of the Sirwan–Diyala Transboundary Basin

نویسندگان English

Bentolhoda Asl-Rousta 1
S. Jamshid Mousavi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

One of the challenges in water resources planning and management is allocating water under scarcity, where available resources are insufficient to meet demands. In such cases, water allocation can be approached using bankruptcy rules. However, applying these rules to complex water resource systems requires addressing both the spatial heterogeneity and temporal mismatch between water availability and demands. In this study, optimal proportional bankruptcy coefficients are obtained using NSGAII- MODSIM multi-objective simulation-optimization model, specifically developed for the Sirwan-Diyala transboundary basin shared by Iran and Iraq. The model incorporates spatial and temporal variability of water development plans through the MODSIM decision-support system. Within the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm, the objective functions are the maximization of each country’s self-utility function. To evaluate the solutions, a stability index is utilized, measuring the distance from each country’s best allocation status. Results indicated that under the proposed allocation scheme, Iraq would need to reduce its agricultural water demand by 14%. Additionally, when temporal reliability for meeting agricultural demands is included in the objective functions, both countries must further reduce their agricultural demands by 9% and 62% for Iran and Iraq, respectively. The results also indicated that meeting the high agricultural demand in Iraq leads to ecological unsustainability on the Iraqi-side of the basin.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Optimal Proportional Bankruptcy Rule, Optimization-Simulation, NSGAII-MODSIM, Sirwan-Diyala Transboundary River Basin
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دوره 21، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 74
تابستان 1404
صفحه 108-121

  • تاریخ دریافت 20 فروردین 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 19 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 16 مرداد 1404