تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

بررسی اثرات تشکیل بازار آب بر منابع آب زیرزمینی و اقتصاد در شرایط عدم کفایت قوانین مدیریتی محدود کننده و نظارت بر مبادلات (مورد مطالعه: دشت هشتگرد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.
2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.
3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.
4 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشکدگان فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
این تحقیق به بررسی اهمیت برنامه‌های دقیق فروش آب و نقش نهادهای اجرایی و نظارتی بر موفقیت بازار آب در دستیابی به اهداف آن، می‌پردازد. با هدف ارزیابی اثرات راهاندازی بازار آب در دشت هشتگرد، در شرایط عدم تطابق برنامه‌های مبادله آب با شرایط منطقه، ضعف در به‌روزرسانی برنامه‌ها و عدم کفایت مدیریت و نظارت پس از گذشت ۲۰ سال از راه‌اندازی آن، یک مدل بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه (MODM) (کاهش برداشت از آب‌های زیرزمینی و افزایش سود اقتصادی) در نرم‌افزار GAMS توسعه یافت و با روش محدودیت اپسیلون تقویت‌شده (AEC) حل شد. نتایج نشان دادند که در غیاب نظارت و مدیریت کافی، بازار آب منجر به توسعه برخی فعالیت‌های صنعتی و کشاورزی (گلخانه‌ها و باغات) که دارای سودآوری بالاتر و مصرف آب کم­تر هستند، می­شود که این امر سبب برهم‌خوردن توازن تولیدات در منطقه می‌شود. علی‌رغم افزایش چشمگیر سودآوری اقتصادی منطقه (از 53/8  به ۳۶۷۷ میلیارد دلار در سال)، برداشت سالانه آب از منابع زیرزمینی از ۲۲۷ به ۲۸۸ میلیون مترمکعب افزایش می‌یابد؛ چرا که مشارکت‌کنندگان بازار، با انگیزه کسب سود بیشتر، تمایلی به کاهش برداشت ندارند. این پژوهش بر اهمیت حیاتی نظارت و مدیریت فعال در بازارهای آب تأکید می‌کند. عدم بروزرسانی برنامه‌های فروش آب با سیاست‌های بالادستی و عدم اعمال محدودیت‌های لازم می‌تواند منجر به خسارات جبران‌ناپذیر بر منابع آبی و تشدید مناقشات اجتماعی شود. برای تضمین موفقیت بازار آب و پایداری منابع آبی، پیشنهاداتی نظیر توسعه مدل‌های برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای، نوسازی تجهیزات کنترلی، پایش مستمر اثرات بازار و اصلاح قوانین مربوط به باغ‌ویلاهای موجود در منطقه ارائه می‌­شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Examining the Impacts of Water Market Establishment on Groundwater Resources and Economy in the Absence of Sufficient Management Rules and Monitoring: A Case Study of Hashtgerd Plain

نویسندگان English

Roya Dashtizadeh 1
Abdolmajid Liaghat 2
Teymour Sohrabi 2
Hamideh Noory 3
Reza Kerachian 4
Javad Bazr Afshan 3
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. 5- Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
4 Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

This research investigates the significance of accurate water sales programs and the role of executive and supervisory bodies in the success of water markets in achieving their objectives. With the aim of evaluating the effects of establishing a water market in the Hashtgerd plain, under conditions of non-conformity between water exchange programs and regional circumstances, coupled with weaknesses in program updates and inadequate management and supervision 20 years after its launch, a Multi Objective Decision Making model (MODM) (focusing on reducing groundwater extraction and increasing economic profit) was developed in GAMS software and solved using the Augmented epsilon-constraint (AEC) method. The results indicated that in the absence of sufficient supervision and management, the water market leads to the development of certain industrial and agricultural activities (greenhouses and orchards) with higher profitability and lower water consumption. This, in turn, disrupts the balance of production in the region. Despite a significant increase in the region’s economic profitability (from 53.8 billion to 3,777 billion annually), the annual water withdrawal from groundwater resources increases from 227 to 288 million cubic meters. This is because market participants, motivated by greater profit, are disinclined to reduce their water usage. This study emphasizes the critical importance of active supervision and management in water markets. Failure to update water sales programs in line with upstream policies and the absence of necessary restrictions can lead to irreparable damage to water resources and exacerbate social conflicts. To ensure the success of the water market and the sustainability of water resources, recommendations are proposed, including the development of regional planning models, modernization of control equipment, continuous monitoring of market impacts, and the revision of regulations pertaining to existing villa-orchards in the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Water Resources Management, Water Market, Water Exchange Rules, Hashtgerd Plain, Dual-Objective Optimization Model, Augmented Epsilon Constraint Method
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دوره 21، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 74
تابستان 1404
صفحه 163-181

  • تاریخ دریافت 21 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 20 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 08 شهریور 1404