The water crisis in Iran’s arid regions, while influenced by climate change, is predominantly rooted in governance failures, as evidenced by empirical data. This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the structural vulnerabilities of the water management system in South Khorasan Province and formulating a comprehensive policy roadmap. This study adopts a mixed-methods methodology. Firstly, the issue of water stress is determined through the analysis of thirty years of time-series data (climatic and hydrological). Subsequently, a combination of AHP and TOPSIS techniques along with Social Network Analysis is utilized for root-cause analysis in order to prioritize solutions.

Analysis of the results reveals that the significant imbalance in the aquifer is more related to governance issues such as state centralization, organizational conflicts of interest, and the neglect of demand management, rather than reduced rainfall. Based on the TOPSIS analysis, the highest-priority solutions for urgent implementation are: (1) Establishing a National Water Data System (C*=0.812), (2) Modifying crop practices and establishing greenhouses (C*=0.786), and (3) Sealing unauthorized wells and installing smart water meters (C*=0.741). Furthermore, SNA verifies that the decision structure is indeed unipolar and state-dominated, signifying that the path to sustainability must shift from a structural and centralized governance paradigm to a networked, participatory, and data-driven governance.