نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی دکتری / گروه سازه های آبی دانشکده کشاورزی . دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 استادیار / گروه سازه های آبی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
عنوان مقاله [English]
In this paper, impacts of climate change on water resources and food productivity of Zayandeh Rud basin using HadCM3, GCM model data under SRES scenario; A2 and B2 for the periods of2010-2039 and 2070- 2099 are investigated. Meteorological analysis shows significant decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature and successive dry years up to the year 2100 Inflows to Chadegan dam was simulated Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model. Then ZWAM model was developed to. Allocate water to different water consumption sectors. The results show significant deficit in inflows to Chadegan dam and water for the agricultural sectors of the basin up to the year 2100 In the next step, the SWAP model was used to simulate staple food (Rice, Wheat, Barely and Potato) production of the basin using climate change information, which revealed decrease in food productivity and increase in coefficient of variation up to the year 2100. To alleviate the negative impacts of climate change, two strategies were evaluated; reduction of cropped lands by applying full water requirements and change in cropping patterns. The first strategy was beneficial only for rice. But changing the cropping pattern and substitution of wheat with rice not only produce more (33 to +48%) calories but also resulted in reduction of water consumption by 10%.