نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی عمران/ گروه مهندسی آب، واحد استهبان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، استهبان ، ایران
2 دانشیار/ هیئت علمی و مدیر گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
In this study, a methodology has been proposed for investigating the hypothesis of needs to change of rule curve related to dams reservoir for the future under climate change conditions. A model was proposed in order to adapt with values of water output from climatic future conditions for evaluation of climate change impacts on reservoir performance. The proposed methodology included LARS-WG model for transformation of CGCM model output under three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, B1 to regional scale, and IHACRES model for simulating inflow stream to reservoir for future period (2017-2030), validated using baseline data (1993-2006), and evolutionary optimization model of Genetic Algorithms (GA), whcih is used for optimizing reservoir operation. Finally, rule curve of dam operation was calculated for the past and future period according to three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, B1. Applying the proposed methodology in determination of rule curve in Dez Dam located in Khouzestan province showed that despite the modification of rule curve in order to achieve the less values of shortages in the climate change conditions for the future period, water supply security index will decrease. The reduction percent is between 1.7 to 7.5% under scenarios A2, A1B and B1. If the rule curve is not modified, the values of shortages will be increased more. Finally, it should be mentioned that ignoring the effects of climate change and the usage of operation method from reservoir based on baseline period for future period will reduce water supply security percentage.