مدل سازی رواناب با استفاده از مدل HBV و الگوریتم جنگل تصادفی (محدوده مورد مطالعه: حوزه آبخیز چم انجیر، استان لرستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین شهرکرد، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت حوضه‎های آبخیز، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران.

چکیده

برآورد رواناب ناشی از بارندگی، گام مهمی در مدیریت منابع آب به ویژه در آبخیزهای فاقد ایستگاه هیدرومتری است. از این رو پژوهش در ارتباط با مدل‎هایی که بتواند در این حوضه‌‎ها با کمترین خطا، جریان رودخانه را شبیه‎‌سازی کند امری ضروری و اجتناب‎‌ناپذیر است. امروزه به دلیل مسائل و مشکلات موجود در زمینه منابع آبی، برآورد حجم رواناب حاصل از بارندگی، از نظر تأمین آب و مدیریت منابع آب روز به روز اهمیت بیشتری پیدا می­کند. در این مطالعه از مدل مفهومی HBV و مدل هوش مصنوعی جنگل تصادفی (RF) به منظور شبیه‌‎سازی فرآیند رواناب حوضه آبخیز چم انجیر در استان لرستان برای دوره آماری 2006 تا 2015 استفاده شده است. بدین منظور، ابتدا آمار و اطلاعات مورد نیاز مدل‎ها از جمله دما، بارش، دبی و تبخیر و تعرق جمع‌‎آوری شد. سپس، شبیه­‌سازی در بازه زمانی مورد نظر انجام شد و برای ارزیابی عملکرد مدل‎ها، از معیارهای  نش- ساتکلیف و ضریب تعیین استفاده شد. نتایج معیارهای ارزیابی برای مدل HBV در ضریب نش 0/67 و در ضریب تعیین 0/68 و برای RF در ضریب نش 0/82 و در ضریب تعیین 0/86 به دست آمدند که بیانگر عملکرد بهتر مدل RF در شبیه‎‌سازی جریان روزانه در منطقه مورد مطالعه است و این مدل می­تواند در آینده به عنوان یک گزینه جدید برای شبیه‌‎سازی جریان روزانه حوضه چم انجیر مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Runoff Modeling Using HBV Model and Random Forest Algorithm (Study Area: Chamanjir Watershed, Lorestan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Atefe Amiri 1
  • Morteza Gheysouri 2
  • Aref Saberi 3
1 Ph.D. Student in Watershed Management Engineering, Shahrekord Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran
2 Ph.D. Student, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Student, Department of Land Watershed Management and Engineering, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Estimating rainfall runoff is an important step in water resources management, especially in watersheds without hydrometric stations. Therefore, it is necessary and inevitable to perform research on models that can simulate river flow in such basins with the least error. Nowadays, due to the issues and problems in the field of water resources, the estimation of the volume of runoff from rainfall is becoming more important everyday in terms of water supply and water resources management. In this study, HBV conceptual model and random forest artificial intelligence (RF) model have been used to simulate the runoff process of Chamanjir watershed in Lorestan province for the statistical period of 2006-2015. For this purpose, first the statistics and information needed by the models, including temperature, precipitation, discharge, and evaporation and transpiration were collected. Then the simulation was carried out in the desired period of time and Nash-Sutcliffe criteria and coefficient of determination were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The results of evaluation criteria for HBV model led to the Nash coefficient of 0.67 and  the determination coefficient of 0.68. For RF, the Nash coefficient and the determination coefficient were respectively obtained as 0.82 of 0.86, which indicates better performance of RF model in simulating daily flow in the study area. The model can be used in the future as a new option to simulate the daily flow of the Chamanjir basin.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Simulation
  • Data Mining
  • RF
  • HBV
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