نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/گروه آبیاری و زهکشی پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران
2 استادیار پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران
عنوان مقاله [English]
This research was aimed to investigate the changes of flood magnitude and frequency considering the uncertainty of AOGCM models that may occur due to the climate change predicted for the time period of 2040-2069. At first, monthly temperature and precipitation data of AOGCM models (models of TAR reports) were provided in the baseline period (1971-2000) and the target period (2040-2069) under the SRES emission scenario, namely A2. Then, these data downscaled spatially and temporally to Aidoghmoush Basin by proportional and change factor methods. Results showed temperature increase and precipitation variation in the target period compared to the baseline period. Monthly probability distribution function of temperature and precipitation in the period of 2040-2069 was constructed by weighting method; comparing observed and modeled temperature-precipitation. A semi- conceptual model (IHACRES) for simulation of daily runoff was calibrated for the basin. Using the Monte Carlo approach 2000 samples of temperature and precipitation were sampled from probability distribution functions and introduced to IHACRES. Finally 2000 series of daily runoff were simulated for the target period. Theoretical probability distribution was fitted to maximum annual flood series and the flood regime of the target period was compared to that of the baseline. Results indicated that the climate change will affect the flood regime of the basin.