نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست،دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of agricultural activities and changing the consumption behavior of farmers who use the surface and groundwater flow of the Mahabad river basin to irrigate their lands. For this purpose, a comprehensive hydrological model has been developed by integrated SWAT and MODFLOW models in order to simulate the surface and groundwater. In the following, using the value-belief-norm theory, the effective factors in farmers' consumption behavior were identified. then the proposed agent-based modeling based on the theory of Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) and hydrological model (SWAT-MODFLOW) tightly coupled to account for agents’ behaviors. Also, using climate change data from the CMIP6 report and defining two optimistic scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 from the ACCESS-CM2 model, the response of the hydrological-social model developed in the future was analyzed and investigated. The outputs of the simulation model showed that many farmers in the basin, especially those who have small land, are below the poverty threshold. For this reason, those farmers try to improve their unfavorable economic or livelihood situation by choosing profitable crops for farming. Totally, the modeling outcomes could improve our understanding of the role of human activities in hydrological cycles, and provide useful information for water managers. The outcomes of this study could be effective for policymaking in the future with the aim of restoration of Urmia Lake taking into account the farmers’ conditions and their decision-making processes.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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