تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تحقیقات منابع آب ایران

تحلیل اختلاف آب ایران و افغانستان در حوضه هیرمند: ارائه یک راه حل پایدار با استفاده از سیستم پشتیبانی تصمیم گیری GMCR

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.
چکیده
دسترسی به منابع آب یکی از چالش‌­برانگیزترین موضوعات قرن حاضر است که می­‌تواند در آینده نزدیک منشاً بسیاری از تحولات در آینده جهان باشد. اختلاف بر سر بهره‌­برداری، تعیین حقابه و یا تعیین حاکمیت رودخانه­‌های مرزی یکی از مهمترین ریشه‌های اختلاف­ کشورهای همسایه است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل مناقشه آبی میان ایران و افغانستان در حوضه هیرمند و ارائه راهکار پایدار برای حل آن با استفاده از تئوری بازی­‌ها انجام شده است. مدل­سازی و تحلیل مناقشه با استفاده از سیستم پشتیبان تصمیم‌­گیری GMCR صورت پذیرفته است. پس از تعیین بازیکنان و گزینه­‌های هریک از آنها، 256 حالت برای برقراری تعادل ایجاد شد که از این بین، 40 حالت به عنوان حالت ممکن یا شدنی شناسایی شد. در مرحله بعد با استفاده از مفاهیم حل بازی‎‌های غیرهمکارانه و با توجه به اولویت‎‌بندی استراتژی­‌ها توسط تصمیم‌­گیران، پنج وضعیت به عنوان نقاط تعادل شناسایی شد. پس از تحلیل نهایی مدل، قوی­ترین و مطلوب‌ترین حالت از بین حالت­های ممکن مناقشه، حالتی شناسایی شد که دولت ایران ضمن حمایت از الگوی کشت بهینه محصولات استراتژیک در کشور افغانستان به ارایه خدمات مهندسی در توسعه زیربناهای آبی آن کشور نیز اقدام نماید و به صورت متقابل دولت افغانستان نیز ضمن به رسمیت شناختن حقابه دولت ایران و آزادسازی حقابه به سوی ایران، اقدام به همکاری نمایند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Analyzing the Iran-Afghanistan Water Dispute in the Hirmand (Helmand) River Basin: A Sustainable Solution Using the GMCR Decision Support System

نویسندگان English

Leila Zareei 1
Hamed Mazandarani Zadeh 2
1 Master's Degree Graduated, Water Science and Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Water Science and Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده English

Access to water resources is one of the most challenging issues of this century, which can be central to many future developments in the world. One of the most common causes of disputes between neighboring countries is the disagreement over the exploitation, ownership, or sovereignty of border rivers. The current research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the water dispute between Iran and Afghanistan in the Hirmand River basin and providing a sustainable solution using game theory. Conflict modeling and analysis were done using the GMCR decision support system. After identifying the players and their options, 256 states were created to maintain the balance, of which 40 were identified as possible or feasible states. In the next step, by solving non-cooperative games and prioritizing strategies by decision-makers, 5 potential outcomes were identified. After the final analysis of the model, the strongest and most desirable state among the possible conflict states was identified. This state involves the Iranian government supporting the optimal cultivation of strategic crops in Afghanistan, while also providing engineering services for the development of Afghanistan's water infrastructure. In turn, the Afghan government would cooperate by recognizing the Iranian government's claims and releasing the Iranian water rights.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Hirmand/Helmand Basin Water Dispute
Game Theory
Equilibrium Point
Non-Cooperative Solution Concepts
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  • تاریخ دریافت 15 اسفند 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری 30 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 01 مرداد 1403