نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 کارشناسارشد /مهندسی عمران- آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران آب و محیطزیست- دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2 دانشیار /دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیطزیست- دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
عنوان مقاله [English]
This study extended the yield model with usage of fuzzy approach and finally minimizes system vulnerability, increase supply of yield demands and improve system operation in drought. For this purpose, with the aid of artificial statistical time series, the rule curve of model has been developed into rule band. Then, the yield of some reservoirs has been simulated via both new model and classic one. The results in Karaj reservoir shows that the average reliability of system for firm yield in both classic and new fuzzy model are equal. The second yield in classic and fuzzy model has average of 82% and 55% respectively. And the third yield has average of 28% and 22% respectively. The result of resiliently is almost same to reliability. Average vulnerability for both classic and fuzzy model for firm yield is 28% and 22%, for second yield is 98% and 45% respectively and for third yield in classic model for all series is equal 100% and for fuzzy model it has average of 82%. Eventually the proposed fuzzy model has been found as an improved system operation for reservoirs, especially in drought conditions.