شبیه سازی هیدرولوژیکی بارش-رواناب با استفاده از الگوریتم های بارش ماهواره ای اصلاح شده، مطالعه موردی: حوضه سد وشمگیر، گلستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد عمران آب، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اسلامشهر

2 Islamic Azad University

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران و رییس مرکز تحقیقات علوم زیست محیطی، واحد اسلامشهر دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی

چکیده

این مطالعه به ارزیابی پتانسیل اطلاعات بارش ماهواره ای برای توسعه مدل معتبر بارش-رواناب جهت تولید اطلاعات هشدار سیلاب در حوضه سد وشمگیر در ایران می پردازد. دو محصول بارش ماهواره ای (TRMM و PERSIANN) مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند تا مشخص شود که کدام محصول الگوی بارش واقعی و شدت آن را در حوضه بهتر نشان می دهد. بعد از انجام ارزیابی بر پایه پارامترهای آماری همچون RMSE، MAE، MBE و R2 تخمین های TRMM برای شبیه سازی بارش-رواناب انتخاب شد. در میان شش سال حاوی اطلاعات دبی (2002 تا 2007)، بازه 2002 تا 2004 برای واسنجی و بازه 2005 تا 2007 برای صحت سنجی استفاده شد. علاوه بر توسعه مدل روزانه بارش-رواناب در HEC-HMS، مدلی بر پایه رخداد نیز توسعه یافت. همچنین شبیه سازی بر اساس اطلاعات روزانه TRMM در مقابل اطلاعات 3 ساعته آن نیز مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت تا بتوان تأثیر گام های زمانی در نتایج را نیز مورد ارزیابی قرار داد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل تلفات deficit constant در بازه واسنجی (NSE= 0.413 ,R2=0.482, RVE= -0.246 %) و بازه صحت سنجی (NSE= 0.621 ,R2=0.670, RVE= -0.329 %) مقدار رواناب و همچنین مقدار دبی روزانه حداکثر را بهتر تخمین می زند. همچنین مدل کاربردی مقیاس های ماهانه و بزرگتر را بهتر از مقیاس روزانه تخمین خواهد زد. به علاوه مدل کاربردی HEC-HMS بر پایه رخداد در گام های زمانی سه ساعته دبی حداکثر را بهتر تخمین می زند. این مطالعه بیانگر مناسب بودن مدل HEC-HMS برای شبیه سازی رواناب پیوسته در حوضه های پیچیده می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Rainfall-Runoff Hydrologic Simulation Using Adjusted Satellite Rainfall Algorithms, a Case Study: Voshmgir Dam Basin. Golestan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Peiman Parisuoj 1
  • Hamid Goharnejad 2
  • Saber Moazami 3
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Environmental Sciences Research Center, Islamshahr
2 Islamic Azad University
3 Department of Civil Engineering, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University
چکیده [English]

In this study two satellite based rainfall estimates (TRMM and PERSIANN) were assessed to evaluate which rainfall product represents better the actual rainfall pattern and intensity of the basin. After evaluation based on statistical parameters such as the: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Correlation coefficient (R2), TRMM were selected for rainfall-runoff simulations. Among six years of available discharge data from 2002 to 2007, period of 2002 to 2004 was used for calibration whereas data from 2005-2007 were used for validation. In additional to continuous daily rainfall-runoff model development using HEC-HMS, an event based flood model was also developed. Also simulations based on daily TRMM versus 3-hourly TRMM were compared to evaluate effect of input time-step on the results. Results showed that the deficit constant loss method successfully predicted gauged catchment runoff and peak flows for the calibration (NSE= 0.413, R2=0.482, RVE= -0.246 %) and validation (NSE= 0.621, R2=0.670, RVE= -0.329 %) periods. Also developed model estimates monthly or longer time scale rainfall-runoff process better than daily scale. In addition, the event based HEC-HMS model developed using TRMM data with shorter time steps (3-hourly) showed good capability to simulate daily peak discharges. The study demonstrates the suitability of HEC-HMS for continuous runoff simulation in a complex watershed. Therefore, this work will have a significant contribution for the future development of water resources programs in this catchment in particular and in other data-scarce catchments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "GIS"
  • "TRMM
  • PERSIANN"
  • "Flood forecasting'
  • "Voshmgir Dam"
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