اثرات اقتصادی سدسازی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار / اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد/ دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.

چکیده

در این مقاله اثرات سدهای بزرگی که در طی سال‌های ۱۳۷۱ تا ۱۳۹۳ در ایران ساخته شده‌اند، بر کشاورزی و رفاه مردم مناطق مجاور و پایین‌دست بررسی می‌شود. برای پاسخ به این سؤال از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی استفاده ‌شده و کنترل‌های جغرافیایی و بارش برای تخمین دقیق‌تر اثر سد بر کشاورزی و رفاه مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. نتایج تحقیق حاضر نشان می‌دهد سدسازی بازده کشاورزی، ارزش تولیدات و سطح زیر کشت محصولات آبی را در شهرستانی که سد در آن واقع شده است افزایش می‌دهد، اما در شهرستان پایین‌دست اثری ندارد. همچنین سدسازی منجر به کشت بیشتر محصولات آب‌بر در مقابل محصولات کم‌آب‌بر در شهرستان محل سد می‌شود که این اثر در شهرستان پایین‌دست معکوس است. برای بررسی اثرات رفاهی، هزینه سرانه خانوار بررسی می‌شود. هزینه‌ی سرانه‌ی روستایی در پایین‌دست سد کاهش می‌یابد، اما هزینه‌ی سرانه‌ی شهرستانی که سد در آن ناحیه ساخته ‌شده ‌است، چه در شهر و چه در روستا تغییری نمی‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Impact of Dams in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Vesal 1
  • Mohammad Saeed Tajrishy 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics at Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student of Economics at Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The economic effects of large dams that were constructed during recent two decades in Iran are explored in this paper and their effects on agriculture and welfare of their own district and downstream districts are analyzed. Ordinary least squares (OLS) method is used to investigate these effects and for more accurate results, we control for geographical variables and rainfall. The results of this study show that dam construction leads to higher agricultural yield, production value and irrigated area in dam’s own district; but it doesn’t affect yield, production and irrigated area in downstream districts. Also dam construction results in planting more water-intensive crops in their own district and less water-intensive crops in downstream districts. In addition, per capita expenditures in rural regions of downstream districts decrease in response to dam construction in upstream districts, but urban regions of the downstream district and also urban and rural regions of their own district are not influenced by dam construction.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dam construction
  • Infrastructure
  • Agriculture
  • Development
  • Iran
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