مقایسه و ارزیابی بارش برآورد شده توسط مدل‌های ERA-Interim، PERSIANN-CDR و CHIRPS در بالادست سد مارون

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب/ گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز.

2 استاد / گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز.

3 دانش آموخته دکتری مهندسی منابع آب/سازمان آب و برق خوزستان.

4 استادیار/ دانشکده عمران، آب و محیط زیست دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران.

چکیده

بارش یک جزء اصلی چرخه هیدرولوژیک است که دارای تغییرات قابل‌توجهی در مکان و زمان می‌باشد و نبود داده‌های مناسب این پارامتر سبب ایجاد مشکل در پیش‌بینی‌های هیدرولوژیک می‌گردد. ازآنجایی‌که داده‌های ماهواره‌ای-باران‌سنجی و داده‌های بازتحلیل راه‌حل جدیدی از برآورد میزان بارش با تنوع مکانی و زمانی ارائه می‌دهند و مشکلات ناشی از کمبود داده‌ها و کیفیت نامناسب آن‌ها را برطرف می‌کند، این مطالعه به بررسی دقت برخی از این نوع داده‌ها شامل داده‌های با وضوح مکانی بالا ERA-Interim، CHIRPS و PERSIANN-CDR در بالادست سد مارون پرداخته و جهت ارزیابی از داده‌های بارش روزانه، ماهانه و سالانه سال‌های 2003 تا 2014 داده‌های شبکه‌بندی بارش و داده‌های باران-سنجی بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد در برآورد بارش سالانه داده‌های مدل‌های شبکه‌بندی شده فرو برآورد عمل نموده و میانگین بارش سالانه را کمتر از میانگین بارش سالانه مشاهداتی برآورد نموده است. در برآورد بارش ماهانه با توجه به ضریب نش-ساتکلیف در ایستگاه‌های دهنو، ایدنک و مارگون مدل ERA-Interim و در ایستگاه قلعه رییسی مدل CHIRPS بهترین عملکرد را نسبت به مدل‌های دیگر نشان می‌دهد. در تخمین بارش روزانه، همچون بارش ماهانه بهترین برآورد در ایستگاه ایدنک مربوط به مدل ERA-Interim بوده که دارای 63/0=NSE می‌باشد و بهترین تخمین میزان بارش در تمام ایستگاه‌ها توسط ERA-Interim صورت گرفته است. همچنین در آشکارسازی صحیح روزهای بارانی مدل ERA-Interim بهترین عملکرد را از بین 3 مدل ماهواره‌ای داشته و بهترین عملکرد این مدل در تشخیص صحیح روزهای بارانی با 53/0POD= در ایستگاه ایدنک صورت پذیرفته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison and Evaluation of precipitation estimated by ERA-Interim, PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS models at the upstream of Maroon dam

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Gorjizade 1
  • Alimohammad AkhondAli 2
  • Ali Shahbazi 3
  • Ali Moridi 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate of Water Recourses Engineering, Department of Water Resources, College of Water Sciences Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahwaz, Ahwaz
2 Professor of Water Recourses Engineering Department of Water Resources, College of Water Sciences Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahwaz, Ahwaz, Iran.
3 Ph.D. in Water Resources Engineering, Khuzestan Water and Power Organization, Ahwaz, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrological cycle, which has significant changes in location and time. The lack of suitable data for this parameter causes a problem in hydrological forecasts. Since satellite data provides a new solution for estimating rainfall with spatial and temporal variation, this study evaluate the accuracy of some of these data types, including high-resolution spatial data consist of ERA-Interim, CHIRPS and PERSIANN-CDR at the upstream of the Maroon Dam on daily, monthly and annual timescales. In order to evaluate gridded precipitation data and observational data from 2003 to 2014, it was considered. The results show that estimation of the annual rainfall data of the gridded precipitation models is underestimated and estimates the average annual precipitation less than the mean annual observational precipitation. In the estimation of monthly precipitation with regard to the Nash-Sutcliff coefficient at Dehno, Idenak and Margoon stations, the ERA-Interim model and at the Ghale-Raeesi station CHIRPS model indicate the best performance compared to other models. In the daily rainfall estimation, like the monthly rainfall, the best estimate at the Idenak station is the ERA-Interim model, which has a NSE of 0.63 and the best estimate of precipitation in all stations is by ERA-Interim. ERA-Interim has the best performance from the 3 gridded models in the correct detection of rainy days. The best performance of this model is in determining the correct rain days with POD = 0.53 at Idenak station.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall estimation
  • Evaluation indexes
  • Satellite-gauge data
  • Reanalysis data

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تحقیقات منابع آب ایران
دوره 15، شماره 1
خرداد 1398
صفحه 267-279

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 شهریور 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 آذر 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 21 آذر 1397

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