بررسی وضعیت منابع-مصارف و اقتصاد کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز مهاباد (واقع در بخش جنوبی دریاچه ارومیه) به کمک توسعه مدل هیدرو-اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب و محیطزیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.

2 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی عمران-گرایش مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب و محیطزیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.

چکیده

انجام هرگونه برنامه‌­ریزی مدیریتی برای کنترل مصارف آب در بخش کشاورزی نیازمند درک صحیح از تأثیرپذیری متغیرهای کنترل‌­کننده­  منابع آب، مصارف آب و اقتصاد کشاورزی از یکدیگر به منظور حصول اطمینان از تأمین نیازهای آبی کشاورزی به صورت بهینه و همچنین تضمین بهبود وضعیت اقتصادی کشاورزان است. هدف اصلی این مطالعه، توسعه­ دو مدل هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصاد کشاورزی در محدوده­ مطالعاتی مهاباد (واقع در بخش جنوبی دریاچه ارومیه) با هدف بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر حجم آب ورودی به سد مهاباد، بررسی تغییرات بلندمدت نیاز ناخالص آبیاری، و تأثیر تغییر الگوی کشت بر نیاز ناخالص آبیاری و اقتصاد کشاورزی منطقه­ بوده است. نتایج نشان دادند که در صورت کنترل مصارف تا سال­ 1419، افزایش حجم آب ورودی به سد مهاباد تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم A1B و B1 می‌تواند متضمن کاهش نیاز کنونی به برداشت از منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی و امکان انجام رهاسازی از سد مهاباد برای تأمین بیشتر نیاز زیست‌­محیطی دریاچه ارومیه باشد. از طرفی، ارزش خالص تولید گندم و جو آبی در سال­‌های گذشته بسیار کمتر از مقدار مشابه برای سایر محصولات زراعی در منطقه­ مطالعه بوده است که عدم توجیه اقتصادی کشت این محصولات را تبیین می­‌سازد. میزان تولید و ارزش خالص تولید چغندرقند روند رو به رشد قابل ملاحظه­‌ای را نشان می‌­دهد که این روند در مغایرت آشکار با سیاست‌­های کاهش 40 درصد مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی است. در صورت افزایش سطح زیر کشت محصولات پر آب­‌بر در منطقه، بیشترین تنش وارده بر منابع آب زیرزمینی تحت سناریوی A2 خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating Water Resources and Agricultural Economy by Hydro-Economic Modeling in the Mahabad Basin Located in the South of the Lake Urmia

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Danesh Yazdi 1
  • SayedMorteza Malaekeh 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc. in Water Resources Management, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Controlling water consumption in agricultural sector requires an appropriate understanding of the interplay between water resources, water consumption and agricultural economy. This study aimed to develop two hydrological and agro-economic models in the Mahabad study area (located in south of the Lake Urmia) in order to investigate the effects of climate change on the volume of water entering the Mahabad dam, explore long-term changes in gross irrigation needs, and study the impact of the crop pattern change on the gross irrigation need and the agricultural economy of the region. The results showed that if the agricultural water consumptions are controlled up to the year 1419 (Persian Calendar), the increase in the volume of water entering the Mahabad Dam under the climate change scenarios A1B and B1 can reduce the current withdrawal from surface and groundwater sources. It would also promote the possibility of release from the Mahabad Dam to partially provide the environmental flow of Lake Urmia. We further found that the net value of the crop production in the past years was much lower for wheat and barley compared to other crops, which explains the lack of economic justification for the cultivation of these two crops. The amount of production and the net value of sugar beet production showed a significant growing trend, which is in a clear contradiction to the policies of reducing agricultural water consumption by 40%. In case of increasing the cultivated area of water-rich crops in the region, the greatest stress on groundwater resources will be under the climate change scenario A2.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrologic and Agro-Economic Modeling
  • Climate Change
  • Crop Pattern
  • Lake Urmia
  • Integrated Water Resources Management
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