کاربرد توسعه نظریه فازی در تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت شاخص‌های سنجش عملکرد سامانه تأمین آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

چکیده

هدف از پژوهش حاضر، محاسبه شاخص‌های سنجش عملکرد سامانه تأمین آب برمبنای دیدگاه احتمالات کلاسیک و فازی با استفاده از سه تابع عضویت مختلف فازی تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی در بازه پایه (2001-1977) و آینده (2040-2015) در حوضه آبریز مارون است. ابتدا اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر دما و بارش با مدل‌های اقلیمی گزارش پنجم هیأت بین‌المللی تغییر اقلیم (IPCC) تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6، RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 بررسی و تغییرات آبدهی مخزن با ANN و آب مورد نیاز آبیاری با Cropwat در (2040-2015) برآورد شدند. سپس، سامانه تأمین آب با WEAP که هدف آن بیشینه‌سازی آب تحویل‌شده به نقاط نیاز براساس قیدهای تعریف‌شده، مدل‌سازی و شاخص‌های سنجش عملکرد سامانه تأمین آب قطعی و فازی محاسبه شدند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که دما در آینده نسبت به پایه تحت RCP 2.6 ،RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 به‌ترتیب 19، 20، 21 درصد افزایش و بارش تحت RCP 2.6، RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 به‌ترتیب 5 درصد کاهش و 14 و 15 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. آب مورد نیاز آبیاری در آینده نسبت به پایه افزایش خواهد یافت، در حالی که جریان ورودی به مخزن، تحت RCP 2.6 و RCP 4.5 کاهش و تحت RCP 8.5 افزایش خواهد یافت. هم‌چنین نتایج نشان می‌دهند که (1) برگشت‌پذیری و آسیب‌پذیری در محیط فازی با توابع عضویت فازی گوسین و نمایی نسبت به محیط قطعی افزایش می‌یابد، (2) انتخاب نوع تابع عضویت فازی، اهمیت زیادی در استخراج نتایج دارد به‌طوری که توابع عضویت فازی دارای هسته فازی در مسائل مدیریت منابع آب، عملکرد بسیار مناسبی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of the Fuzzy Theory Development in the Uncertainty Analysis of Water Supply System Performance Indexes

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parvin Golfam 1
  • Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of the research is to calculate the performance indexes of water supply system based on perspective of classical and fuzzy probabilities using three-different fuzzy membership function under climate scenarios in baseline period (1977-2001) and future (2015-2040) in the Marun Basin. First, the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation were estimated for the period of 2015-2040 using climate models of the fifth report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For the same period, ANN were used to determine the changes in inflow to reservoir and the irrigation water requirements were determined using Cropwat. Then, the water supply system was modeled with WEAP, the goal of which was to maximize the water delivered to the points of need based on the defined conditions. The crisp and fuzzy water supply system performance indexes were then calculated. Results showed that under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, temperature will increase by 19, 20, 21%, and precipitation will decrease by 5% and increase by 14 and 15%, respectively. Future irrigation water requirements will increase relative to baseline, while inflow to the reservoir will decrease under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 and increase under RCP 8.5. Also, the results showed that (1) the resiliency and vulnerability in the fuzzy environment with Gaussian and exponential fuzzy membership functions increases compared to the crisp environment, and (2) the choice of the type of fuzzy membership function is very important in extracting the results and so the fuzzy membership functions with fuzzy core perform very well in water resource management problems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Supply System Performance Indicators
  • Fuzzy Theory
  • Gaussian Function
  • Exponential Function
  • Sigmoid Function
Ashofteh P S, Bozorg-Haddad O, and Mariño M A (2013) Climate change impact on reservoir performance indexes in agricultural water supply. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 139(2):85-97
Ashofteh P S, Rajaee T, Golfam P, and Chu X (2019) Applying climate adaptation strategies for improvement of management indexes of a river–reservoir irrigation system. Irrigation and Drainage Journal 68(3):420-432
Behboudian M and Kerachian R (2021) Evaluating the resilience of water resources management scenarios using the evidential reasoning approach: The Zarrinehrud river basin experience. Journal of Environmental Management 284:112025
Biswas J K, Mondal B, Priyadarshini P, Abhilash P C, Biswas S, and Bhatnagar A (2022) Formulation of water sustainability index for India as a performance gauge for realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6. Ambio 51:1569-1587
Carneiro Marques A, Veras C E, and Rodriguez D A (2022) Assessment of water policies contributions for sustainable water resources management under climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 608:127690
Chen H, Wang Z, Xu S, Zhao Y, Cheng Q, and Zhang B (2020) Energy demand, emission reduction and health co-benefits evaluated in transitional China in a 2°C warming world. Journal of Cleaner Production 264:121773
El-Baroudy I and Simonovic S P (2006) Application of the fuzzy performance measures to the City of London water supply system. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 33(3):255-265
FAO, CROPWAT (1992) A computer program for irrigation planning and management. FAO Irrigation and Drainage paper, No. 46. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome
Golfam P and Ashofteh P S (2022) Performance indexes analysis of the reservoir‑hydropower plant system affected by climate change. Water Resources Management 36:5127–5162
Golmohammadi M H, Safavi H R, Sandoval-Solis S, and Fooladi M (2021) Improving performance criteria in the water resource systems based on fuzzy approach. Water Resources Management 35:593-611
Halkijevic I, Vukovic Z, and Vouk D (2017) Indicators and a neuro-fuzzy based model for the evaluation of water supply sustainability. Water Resources Management 31:3683-3698
Hashimoto T, Stedinger J R, and Loucks D P (1982) Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water resources system performance evaluation. Water Resources Research 18(1):14-20
Jahanshahi S and Kerachian R (2019) An evidential reasoning-based sustainability index for water resources management. Hydrological Science Journal 64(10):1223-1239
Karamouz M, Rahimi R, and Ebrahimi E (2021) Uncertain water balance-based sustainability index of supply and demand. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 147(5)
Locks D P and Van Beek E (2005) Water resources systems planning and management: An introduction to methods, models and applications. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris
Moghaddasi P, Kerachian R, and Sharghi S (2022) A stakeholder-based framework for improving the resilience of groundwater resources in arid regions. Journal of Hydrology 609:127737
Mortezaeipooya S S, Ashofteh P S, and Golfam P (2022) Selecting the best approach to modeling the performance of water supply system using the combination of rough set theory with multi‑criteria decision-making. Water Resources Management 36(9):3129-3152
Niu W J and Feng Z K (2021) Evaluating the performances of several artificial intelligence methods in forecasting daily streamflow time series for sustainable water resources management. Sustainable Cities and Society 64:102562
Niva V, Cai J, Taka M, Kummu M, and Varis O (2020) China’s sustainable water-energy-food nexus by 2030: Impacts of urbanization on sectoral water demand. Journal of Cleaner Production 251:119755
Press S J (2003) Subjective and objective Bayesian statistics: Principles, models and applications. 2nd Edition, New York, NY: Wiley Interscience
Safavi H R, Golmohammadi M H (2016) Evaluating the water resource systems performance using fuzzy reliability, resilience and vulnerability. Iran-Water Resources Research 12(1):68-83 (In Persian)
Sandoval-Solis S, McKinney D C, and Loucks D P (2011) Sustainability index for water resources planning and management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 137:381-390
Sarzaeim P, Bozorg-Haddad O, Fallah-Mehdipour E, and Loáiciga H A (2017) Climate change outlook for water resources management in a semiarid river basin: the effect of the environmental water demand. Environmental Earth Sciences 76:489
Sieber J, Swartzand C, and Huber-Lee A (2005) User guide for WEAP21. Stockholm Environment Institute Tellus Institute
Simonovic S P (2009) A new method for spatial and temporal analysis of risk in water resources management. Journal of Hydroinformatics 11(3-4):320-329
Srdjevic Z and Srdjevic B (2017) An extension of the sustainability index definition in water resources planning and management. Water Resources Management 31:1695–1712
United Nation Environment Programme Annual Report (2019) Available at: www.unep.org.
WEAP Tutorial (2016) Stockholm Environment Institute: Stockholm, Sweden.
Wilby R L and Harris I (2006) A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 42(2):1-10
World Water Assessment Programme (Nations Unies) (2018) The United Nations world water development report.  United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, New York, United States, Available at: www.unwater.org/publications/world-water-development-report-2018.
Xu W, Zhong Z, Proverbs D, Xiong S, and Zhang Y (2021) Enhancing the resilience of the management of water resources in the agricultural supply chain. Water 13(12):1619
Yaseen Z M, Ramal M M, Diop L, Jaafar O, Demir V, and Kisi O (2018) Hybrid adaptive neuro-fuzzy models for water quality index estimation. Water Resources Management 32:2227-2245
Zadeh L A (1965) Fuzzy sets. Information and Control 8(3):338-353
Sajadi M and Rabei F (2004) Simulating the water resources system of the Jarrahi catchment basin and determining the optimal operating curve of the Marun dam. Scientific Journal of Agriculture 27:165-172 (In Persian)
Marofi S and Tabari H (2011) Revealing the process of changes in Marun River discharge using parametric and non-parametric methods. Geographical Research Quarterly 26(819):11119-17141 (In Persian)
MirMehdi M, Shourian M, and Sharafati A (2022) Adaptation to climate change conditions in Maroon Basin. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research 53(11):2533-2549 (In Persian)
Perera E D P and Lahat L (2015) Fuzzy logic based flood forecasting model for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia. Journal of Hydro-Environment Research 9(4):542-553
Patel J N and Balve P N (2016) Evapotranspiration estimation with fuzzy logic. International Journal of Advances in Mechanical and Civil Engineering 3(4)
Kambalimath S and Deka P C (2020) A basic review of fuzzy logic applications in hydrology and water resources. Applied Water Science 10:191
Li M, Fu Q, Singh V P, Liu D, Li T and Zhou Y (2020) Managing agricultural water and land resources with tradeoff between economic, environmental, and social considerations: A multi-objective non-linear optimization model under uncertainty. Agricultural Systems 178:102685
Chen Y, Fu Q, Singh V P, Ji Y, Li M, and Wang Y (2023) Optimization of agricultural soil and water resources under fuzzy and random uncertainties: Synergy and trade-off between equity-based economic benefits, nonpoint pollution and water use efficiency. Agricultural Water Management 281:108264
Iran Water Resources Management Company (1977) Available at: www.wrm.ir